Tabors Takes- MLB Breakdown 4/2

It feels so good to be back on the MLB grind. We have a nice 9 game slate to breakdown. Be sure to get signed up using code “RPS15” for 15% off and the best daily content for ALL SPORTS IN ONE PRICE. This article is free every Tuesday and Thursday! My articles are always built on single entry and while I try to play MLB on Fanduel my plays are good on all sites. I play just one lineup, every day, no matter the sport. I love grinding my guys that I spent all day researching. I’m a firm believer that single entry contests are the best ones to fade the chalk for a massive advantage. So get your ass subscribed to RPS for my daily cores and let’s crush this MLB season.   Pitching   Reynaldo Lopez- I’m focused on spending down at pitcher today. Castillo is the only spend up I’m considering and Bello is written up on the mid range. That leaves me with these two and Lopez probably my favorite. He’s struggles in a starting role in the past with Chicago, but I like the move to Atlanta for him. The offensive support will certainly be there and Lopez brings some of the best K upside on the entire slate. He gets his old team in a matchup that looks glorious for any pitcher and I love this price tag.   Javier Assad- Since my first two guys are both pitching in Chicago it’s worth mentioning the cold weather there tonight. Winds are intense but it’s 40 degrees for both of these guys. Assad gets the Rockies, who look awful as always. This team has been great to target early in the season and we have to love the price on Assad here. A guy that can average a K per inning in a plus matchup across the board, with great weather at $6k.   Brayan Bello- Matchups are key today. Lopez against the White Sox, Assad vs. the Rockies and we close it out with Bello against Oakland. We saw what Tanner Houck did last night with 6 innings and 10k against this putrid team. They benched their best hitter in Brent Rooker and optioned their next biggest threat to AAA yesterday, so I’d imagine the locker room feels really good about the shit team they’ve assembled. Bello was a guy I fell in love with last year and I expect a good bounce back here tonight.   Stacks   Braves- first main slate with the Bravos. Sign me up. Crotchet looked incredible in his first start of the year but there’s not a lefty in the league that could keep me off of the Braves here.   Padres- Miles Mikolas is so dusty. I’m saving salary today at pitcher and getting the strong bats that stick out to me. Too many promising arms in good spots to not put my salary on the bats I trust. This slate lacks any must attack pitchers with the exception of Mikolas here. The next Dusty arms belong to Houser (not stacking Detroit) and Kyle Freeland who I hate picking on specially when it’s 40 degrees and the hitting weather sucks. Braves and Pads.   Giants- If I do want a cheap team I’m going with the Giants today. Early season is a good time to target the west coast games. I’d rather spend up on several teams over the Dodgers today because I think Logan Webb is one of the best pitchers in the game. I’m sure they score some runs because they are the Dodgers, but I don’t see the upside today. The Giants at least get a bullpen game that includes Ryan Yarbrough. With a coaching change I don’t expect as much pinch hit risk here but we will wait for lineups. Either way this Giants team always battles against LA and I expect some run support tonight.     Preference List   Braves  Padres Giants Yankees Diamondbacks      Ozzie Albies- Not a better switch hitter against lefties and he loves the hard stuff. Crotchet brings plenty of heat and I expect a massive game here.

Tabors Takes- Opening Day MLB Breakdown

It feels so good to be back on the MLB grind. It’s finally time for opening day at RPS. Be sure to get signed up using code “RPS15” for 15% off and the best daily content for ALL SPORTS IN ONE PRICE.  This article is free every Tuesday and Thursday. Lucky for you opening day is one of those days! My articles are always built on single entry. I play just one lineup, every day, no matter the sport. I love grinding my guys that I spent all day, or in this case days, preparing. I’m a firm believer that single entry contests are the best ones to fade the chalk for a massive advantage. So get your ass subscribed to RPS for my daily cores and let’s crush this MLB season. Pitching Jesus Luzardo- The Pirates were not a good team last year, moments of upside sure, but not good. Last year I didn’t like picking on them, they sucked, but lacked the K upside we need in DFS. This year they added and are bringing back a ton of strikeouts to this lineup though and I think this makes them one of my favorite teams to target early on. ONiell Cruz is a K machine, Big Ole Rowdy Tellez brings some pop with plenty of swing and miss, and Michael A Taylor?? Add that to an already unappealing lineup and I need the Lizard at home here. Tellez and Cruz are also lefty on lefty as the two scariest bats in this lineup. Luzardo is focused on pitching deep into games this year, he had a solid spring and worked the pitch count to an appealing number. We also know he brings the swing and miss with a 10.4 K/9 last year. I also love that he’s comfortable at home where he pitched a 2.99 ERA and 1.11 WHIP last season. I’m back to playing on Fanduel this year and he’s probably my solo pitcher today.   Tarik Skubal- The WhiteSox were atrocious last year, and I think they got worse. A ton of strikeouts and ground balls made up this 2023 lineup, now we add Martin Maldonado, Paul Dejong and Kevin Pillar. It’s hard not to love one of the most talented DFS arms now in good health with this kind of matchup.   Tyler Glasnow- Are the Dodgers taking the training wheels off one of the most electric pitchers in the game? I was stunned to see 77 pitches last week and you have to imagine he sees 80 plus here. He’s one of the best strikeout arms in the game and he might have the largest pitch count we see today #shitweneverexpected Stacks I think the most popular build today is one of the Nationals/ Reds with the Dodgers. If you feel confident in a pitcher that’s lower owned then I don’t mind this build at all. They are undoubtedly in good spots and rightfully getting steamed up. They are 3 teams I’m certainly focused on, but I want a difference maker here and that’s where these stacks come in.    Twins/Royals- This game will come in under the game in Cincinnati and I’m not sure it should. They have the best hitting weather on the slate, 65 degrees and 15mph winds blowing out. We called it mini Coors last season and somehow Kaufmann Stadium lived up to it. We saw some crazy runs in this ballpark in 2023 and if that trend continues are we that afraid of Pablo Lopez and Cole Ragans in game 1 of the season in a division series? I’m not. Most people seem to think Ragans is a stud now, but I haven’t forgotten of his blunders in Texas. He looked great last year, but he gives up hard contact and the Twins could easily knock him around here. I like both sides, but the Twins are one of my favorite stacks today.   Astros- I think Nestor Cortes sucks. I love picking on him and it hasn’t paid off a ton, mainly because of the Yankees bullpen, but there’s certainly spots it will. I love the Astros against lefties, their lefty bats are actually better against LHP and they are righty heavy everywhere else. A great pivot in my eyes over the chalk Dodgers. If they get to Cortes early we should avoid the good parts of the pen.   Orioles- I will always have interest in the O’s against LHP and they are certainly in a low owned spot here.   Preference List Dodgers  Twins Reds Astros Orioles Nationals    Core Plays Byron Buxton- This is always a guy I target early in the season. He might actually be the most talented player in baseball. He has the power upside of anyone in the sport and speed of the leagues top base stealers. He just can’t stay healthy, luckily that’s not a problem in game 1. I love this game today and he’s my favorite bat. Jung Hoo Lee- I like that his first big league matchup is against Yu Darvish. I also just really think this dude is elite. Random one off play, batting lead off,  that I’ve got in my lineup today.

Super Bowl Showdown

It’s Super Bowl showdown time!! There’s no better showdown in sports and we have a hell of a game in front of us here. Can Taylor Swift and the Chiefs stop this daunting 49ers team? Can Usher erase the last terrible live performance we watched in a football game by Jack Harlow in Detroit? Will the Gatorade finally be clear?? I bet on this every year hoping they simply get the coach with water, thinking it’s an edge and it never fricken happens.. we are due! I honestly just had to google why I could bet on there being an Octopus at the game too? No idea that scoring a touchdown and the same player converting the 2 point conversion had a name. Anyways, let’s dive into the best sporting event of the year and make some money!  Now, a little about me and this article. I’m a single entry DFS player who enjoys building and rooting for my one team that I spent hours to construct. The difference between myself and other single entry players, is that I prefer to build in a very contrarian way. You’ll rarely see a Patrick Mahomes captain when you see Tabor5 at the top of a showdown leaderboard and that’s what this article will do for you. I try to focus on the not so popular builds and players that give us the edge we need to take down some big time cash! Let’s take a look at todays game. Notes: Following Vegas and these lines can be important to your builds. Game flow, outcomes, and the line changes can all make a difference. This game has not had dramatic or really any changes to the lines. No major injuries, no major news, the stage is just set. I think It’s important to establish your thoughts on the outcome and build your lineups accordingly. Personally, I think SF -2 is stealing money. The Chiefs have looked like dog shit this season in comparison to their glory days. I get it, they have turned it on here when it matters most, but they are FAR less talented than this 49ers team. Fortunately, they own Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson is a playoff choke artist, resulting in another Super Bowl appearance. I will not only be heavily invested in the 49ers in DFS, but my money will be all over this spread and plenty of alternates. Next up is the total of 47.5 which is less appealing to me from a betting standpoint. I don’t see this being a 27-20 type of game. I think this total either gets blown away or these teams don’t even come close to it. I could see low scoring with two elite defenses and offenses that could easily come out slow after the media week. I could also see a good ole fashioned shoot out with the talent on these offenses. My lean is definitely to hammer this under, but I’m not nearly as confident as just taking the Niners. Maybe your thoughts don’t align with me here and that’s fine, I still think it’s important to establish your predictions before you build. Notable Injuries: Jerick McKinnon- This is a really important one to watch. He’s $200 and the Chiefs staff trusts him a ton. Just a year ago, this guy was a huge part of their Super Bowl run. He’s been activated from IR and I expect him to play.   Contrarian Plays 49ers Defense- I hate playing defenses and kickers like the rest of us, but I definitely have some conviction here. This was one of the best all around units all season long, and they are absolutely loaded with talent. They have really disappointed in the playoffs though, after letting both Jared Goff and Jordan Love torch them in these first two games. I really think they come out and prove a point this week with absolutely no ownership at $4,400. Kyle Juszczyk, Jerick McKinnon, Richie James- Juszczyk is $800 and a key player that sees the field constantly. This is the biggest game of the year, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a goal line attempt and/or  a few targets. We want the studs and the only way to get them is playing guys like this. I’m definitely prioritizing McKinnon if he plays in this super cheap range, but hell maybe I’ll run two of them in my single bullet and just load up. James is also an option at $400. He’s been seeing a pretty consistent 20-30% of snaps and while that’s not nearly as many snaps as MVS and Justin Watson, at least Richie James is actually talented. He also saw a target in the end zone last week. Brandon Aiyuk- I’m not sure how contrarian he will be, but I think people will lean towards thinking Shanahan wants to get Deebo involved. This matchup favors Aiyuk by a long shot on paper though. This matchup is always easy for me, Aiyuk sees 27% of targets when facing man coverage, Deebo only sees 15%. In zone coverage Deebo sees 24% to Aiyuks 20%. This isn’t a one season glitch either, Deebo just isn’t targeted in man coverage. I’ll gladly take that disparity considering how much man coverage the Chiefs defense will throw at them. Only the Browns, Cowboys and Giants ran more man coverage than the Chiefs this year. My preferred pass catchers in this offense are ranked Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle then Deebo this week.   Fades Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Kickers

Contrarian Conference Championship Build

What’s happening RPS! It’s Conference Championship week and it’s time to start thinking football. This is one of the best times of the year, sweating golf tournaments all day, NBA at night, and getting ready for playoff football on the weekends. For DFS, a 2 game slate means ridiculous ownership and very chalky spots. This is exactly the type of slate where taking stands is crucial. Let’s find those contrarian plays. Now, a little about me and this article. I’m a single entry DFS player who enjoys building and rooting for my one team that I spent hours to construct. The difference between myself and other single entry players, is that I prefer to build in a very contrarian way. You’ll rarely see a Patrick Mahomes captain when you see Tabor5 at the top of a showdown leaderboard and that’s what this article will do for you. I try to focus on the not so popular builds and players that give us the edge we need to take down some big time cash! Let’s take a look at today’s game. Notes: Following Vegas and these lines can be important to your builds. Game flow, outcomes, and the line changes can all make a difference. We have two games this week to dive into and there’s a few things sticking out to me. I do think the 49ers win this game, but 7.5 points is a lot against a really fricken good Lions team. The 49ers also struggled last week against a far less superior Packers team. The total is a good one at 51.5, so we can expect a lot of points scored here and I think we have a really close game that either team can win. The line for Chiefs/ Ravens feels right to me so I’m not touching it, but I do think Over 44 is a lock. These are good defenses, but it’s the AFC Championship game, with 2 elite quarterbacks. These totals will lead to heavier ownership on the night game, so naturally a way to be different is to stack one of these AFC offenses. Notable Injuries: Deebo Samuel-** Shanahan announced he will play so you can ignore this*** We watched the glass man leave last weeks game after one drive. It really hurt having Deebo for 50+ yards on a parlay that would have hit, after watching him rack up 25 yards like 3 plays into the game. It’s a shoulder injury, and reports show that it’s nothing serious “shoulder discomfort”. He was limited in practice, but the fact that he’s practicing and it’s the NFC Championship has me thinking he plays. I’d be stunned at this point if he didn’t, so I’m planning accordingly. Isiah Pacheco- We are dealing with two Injuries that can certainly be nagging. It’s the toe and ankle for Pacheco and he’s yet to practice this week. I think he ends up playing, but that’s really just an opinion. If he doesn’t then Clyde Edwards -Helaire becomes a lock play. I will note that I’m probably fading Pacheco either way here. A really good defense and two injuries that could be easily aggravated sounds like an easy fade for me. Kalif Raymond- Still hasn’t practiced so looks unlikely to suit up again. Mark Andrews- The Ravens activated him off IR and have their weapon back for the biggest game of the season. He’s been a full practice participant since last Wednesday so I don’t expect him to be limited. This obviously would hurt Isaiah Likely.   Approach I’m very big on numbers and matchups, this is why I excel at baseball above anything else with DFS. There’s actually a ton of ways to get different this week that support the things I look for and I love it. I shared my feelings on the Vegas lines and what I expect in these games. A close shootout in both games meaning that I can care less what defense I land on here. It’s a crapshoot as to which of these defenses gets us a touchdown, so I’m not prioritizing anyone. As for the rest of my build, I’m plugging in a couple of my smash plays at RB, WR, TE then letting my quarterback fit into my lineup as well. I’ll rank the QBs below, but I think they are fair priced and I think all 4 of them will show out this weekend. If I had to fade one it’s certainly Goff. So let’s dive into my smash plays.   Contrarian Smash Plays Deebo Samuel- This is a great contrarian play. Last weeks debacle will certainly make people question clicking his name and I love attacking those trends. The Lions secondary gives up a ton of explosive plays, and when you think of explosive plays in the 49ers passing attack it has to be Deebo. The Lions play an above average rate of man coverage, which typically benefits Aiyuk, but we are still looking at well above 70% zone schemes where Deebo excels, and the Lions were the 4th worst defense at allowing explosive plays in zone coverage. This is an absolute smash spot for Deebo and I love stacking him, CMC, and Purdy to start my build. I expect the field to take the savings on Aiyuk and Kittle this week and I’ll gladly go this route instead. Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman- I expect a close game and offense here, I don’t like Pacheco with these injuries and I don’t LOVE Kelce in this matchup. The Ravens run a lot of man coverage and they have two extremely talented linebackers in coverage with Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen to mark Kelce. Rashee Rice sees a 27% target rate against man coverage and Justin Watson surprisingly sees almost 20%. They are Mahomes preferred options in man heavy schemes and I want to attack here. Watson is a great value at $3,300 and I’d even consider Mecole Hardman at $3,000. At least one of these guys

Tabor’s Take- Contrarian TNF Build

Thursday night football has been brutal the last several weeks. I think we have covered every unappealing team the NFL can offer. Steelers, Patriots, Raiders, and now we get the New York Jets and their putrid offense. If you like watching defense then this game is going to be for you. The Browns and Jets have two of the best in the league and I’m a Browns fan so I’m actually pumped for this one. The Browns can clinch a playoff spot at home for the first time in my lifetime! Now, a little about me and this article. I’m a single entry DFS player who enjoys building and rooting for my one team that I spent hours to construct. The difference between myself and other single entry players, is that I prefer to build in a very contrarian way. You’ll rarely see a Patrick Mahomes captain when you see Tabor5 at the top of a showdown leaderboard and that’s what this article will do for you. I try to focus on the not so popular builds and players that give us the edge we need to take down some big time cash! Let’s take a look at todays game. Notes: Following Vegas and these lines can be important to your builds. Game flow, outcomes, and the line changes can all make a difference. The Browns are currently favored by 7.5. This line opened at -6 for Cleveland and the money is heavy on the Browns side, as reflected with the 1.5 point move. No major injury news that would affect the line or our builds! Notable Injuries: Aaron Rodgers for the Jets and the entire starting offense for the Browns. In all seriousness there’s nobody new missing. Amari Cooper was a mid day Q tag. It’s never good to see this so monitor it. This would obviously give us some vale receivers for Cleveland and boost guys like Njoku, Moore and even Jerome Ford.   Captain Plays Amari Cooper- This questionable tag makes me love this contrarian Captain play even more. I don’t think people are excited to pay this price at captain today. I’d be shocked if they chase his insane 55 DK point game from last week against Sauce Gardner and the Jets. This is also a weird stat, but Amari Cooper has extreme home/road splits since he’s joined the Browns. He’s significantly more productive at home in front of the dawg pound and I’m happy to pay this price. Jerome Ford- The game log folks probably won’t be intrigued with his recent scores. The reason I’m intrigued is because of his targets in the passing game with Flacco. He has 23 targets in his last 5 which puts us at like 4-5 a game. He has plenty of touchdown equity with 7 and I love him today at this price. Cedric Tillman- I’m all Cleveland at captain today which isn’t very contrarian, but I think the guys I like are different. I’d be stunned if any of these 3 are captained as often as David Njoku and Joel Flacco. Tillman saw a season high 73% of snaps last week and he’s outperforming Elijah Moore. He’s been steadily climbing every week and $3k is a beautiful tag for him here where the focus of this talented Jets defense should be on Njoku and Cooper.   Flex Plays Garrett Wilson- The Browns linebackers are playing out of their mind so I prefer Wilson over Breece Hall in the passing game today. It’s hard to even count Hall as a running back looking at his game log. So many duds with 13 carries for 16 yards, 6 for 12, 7 for 25 etc. Despite the Browns defensive talent we have to attack somewhere and Garrett Wilson garners 28% of the targets against man coverage. The Browns run more man than anyone in the league. Easy choice here for me. Joe Flacco- This guy is statistically the best QB in the NFL since he started for the Browns. Hard to expect that to continue forever, but I’m not about to fade him here. One of my first people in today, I just don’t love his upside against this defense as a captain play. Greg Zuerlein- These defenses should limit both sides to some field goals. I’m much higher on Zuerlein because he’s their actual kicker. Cleveland just signed Riley Patterson this week because of an injury to Dustin Hopkins. I could see them going for it often on 4th downs tonight.   Fades Browns Defense- $5,600 is a stupid price tag Breece Hall- Go to my write up on Garrett Wilson

Tabors Takes- Contrarian TNF Showdown

What’s up RPS, are we ready for another stinker of a Thursday night game? This week should be better than the Steelers- Patriots game from last week, still this is a bad Raiders team welcoming a Herbert-less Chargers team to Vegas tonight. The good news is that we don’t have just a 30 point total again.  Now, a little about me and this article. I’m a single entry DFS player who enjoys building and rooting for my one team that I spent hours to construct. The difference between myself and other single entry players, is that I prefer to build in a very contrarian way. You’ll rarely see a Patrick Mahomes captain when you see Tabor5 at the top of a showdown leaderboard and that’s what this article will do for you. I try to focus on the not so popular builds and players that give us the edge we need to take down some big time cash! Let’s take a look at todays game. Notes: Following Vegas and these lines can be important to your builds. Game flow, outcomes, and the line changes can all make a difference. Today we have the Raiders favorited at -3 at home, the total sits at just 34.5. Most books have assumed the absence of Herbert from the open so these lines have not been fluctuating much. I personally love this over. While it’s not as low as last weeks 30 point line, these defenses are FAR worse than the Patriots and Steelers. While the offenses, the quarterbacks especially, are equally as incompetent, the star power including Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs and Austin Ekeler are far superior to anyone we watched last Thursday night. I expect some points and I expect those mentioned stars to shine. Notable Injuries:  We should all know by now that Justin Herbert is out for the rest of this season. Easton Stick takes over in his place and he didn’t look too bad when he entered the game last week. 13/25 for 179 with a lost fumble. I’m not fading any quarterback against this Raiders defense so he’s surely in play.  Keenan Allen- This opens up a ton of upside for the Chargers pass catchers. Joshua Palmer comes in as the most expensive on DK at $6,200 and they are all in play. Stick even targeted Gerald Everett a healthy amount last week and I think he’s a great play with Allen’s targets opening up this offense.  Josh Jacobs- He’s still listed as questionable but we are going to plan for him to miss as it seems likely at this point in the day. This obviously makes Zamir White ($3,000) and Ameer Abdullah ($4,800) great value plays. Davante Adams- Listed as questionable but expected to play. Captain Plays  Davante Adams- If Josh Jacobs is out then we have nobody else worth getting involved on this Raiders team. This should force them to get creative and find any way possible to get and keep Adams involved throughout this game. Remember they are 3 point favorites with the assumption that Jacobs isn’t playing, and that tells me the Raiders should be able to move the ball tonight.  Gerald Everett- He saw 8 targets last week and the absence of Keenan Allen is only going to help in that regard today. Young quarterbacks tend to lean on their big bodied tight ends, big targets, safety valve type guys that make uncomfortable guys comfortable. With the years of experience under Everett’s belt, I think he’s a big part of this game plan today. Brandon Staley is as much on the hot seat as anyone and I don’t expect the Chargers to lay over and die now that their season is over.  Easton Stick- I love when we get these young quarterbacks at cheaper than usual QB salary and low ownership. I’d be shocked if Stick sees more than 6% ownership at captain today and he looks more than capable of giving us a Jake Browning like performance from last weeks showdown. I’m a big fan of this Chargers passing game today so I’m certainly interested in the guy throwing the ball. Flex Plays Chargers Receivers- I don’t feel overly confident about any of the 3. All of my interest is with Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnson, and Jaylen Guyton. However, there’s a problem with each one of them. Palmer hasn’t played since week 8, Johnston is Mr. Inconsistent and has a legitimate shot at 2 targets with no catches any time he’s on the field, Guyton is the 3rd option and shouldn’t be on the field as much as these other guys. Because of this I want at least one of these guys in my lineup, but I’m not forcing more than that. I’m very pleased with Stick, Everett and whoever fits between these 3 to round up my Chargers stack. If you’re confident the Chargers win then I love this technique and adding in Austin Ekeler for a 4-2 build.   Las Vegas Running Back- This is going to be a pivotal value piece tonight. White is the expected early down man and probably the touchdown guy, while Abdullah should get all the pass catching work from the backfield. My suggestion here is very simple… evaluate for yourself how you see the game script going. I like the over and I also like the Chargers to win. My game script is telling me to play the Chargers and run it back with pass catching options for the Raiders. Abdullah should get plenty of opportunities tonight and he gets my preference.  Kickers- I’m not really on board with the defenses today, but kickers are fair game. Dicker the kicker gets my preferred vote. Michael Mayer– The Chargers struggle with tight ends and a $3,200 price tag looks nice to me. We have seen Mayer have some solid games and I’m confident he can get us 10+ points at this tag. Once again, you tend to see young inexperienced quarterbacks lean on their

Tabor’s Take- Contrarian Showdown- Bengals @ Ravens

What’s up RPS, I was out for a few weeks, but I’m back and ready to give out some winners tonight! We’ve got a really good primetime game and I feel like that hasn’t been the case lately in the NFL. Last week was a game between the Justin Fields less Bears and the Carolina Panthers. FRICKEN UGLY.  Tonight we get a division battle between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow VS Lamar Jackson. It’s going to be a great game and should make for a fun DFS showdown. Now, a little about me and this article. I’m a single entry DFS player who enjoys building and rooting for my one team that I spent hours to construct. The difference between myself and other single entry players, is that I prefer to build in a very contrarian way. You’ll rarely see a Patrick Mahomes captain when you see Tabor5 at the top of a showdown leaderboard and that’s what this article will do for you. I try to focus on the not so popular builds and players that give us the edge we need to take down some big time cash! Let’s take a look at todays game. Game Notes: Following Vegas and these lines can be important to your builds. Game flow, outcomes, and the line changes can all make a difference. Today we have the Ravens favored at home by -3.5. I personally love the line because it’s division football, it’s Joe Burrow off a bad loss and I just think there’s no way this is more than a 3 point game. Bengals with the points and honestly Bengals money line are my picks here. Lamar is 7-2 against the Bengals in his career and gets to play at home, Burrow is just 3-3 against the Ravens. Both the spread and the over/under (46) have basically stayed the same since these lines opened. 51% of money is on the Ravens here, which I kind of find bizarre being a division game and that half point being a big one. Nothing in the betting lines and their movement are giving us much of an edge today. Seems pretty clear cut that this should be a close division game and I doubt that changes.   Injuries: There’s really only one injury worth mentioning for us. The Bengals are without Tee Higgins today. This will open up more opportunity for guys like Tyler Boyd and Trenton Irwin. We also saw Burrow target his tight ends 12 times last week without Higgins in the lineup. That’s the most we’ve seen all year and I expect them to use these guys again today.    Captain Plays  Lamar Jackson- I’m not typically a QB at captain guy, I think there’s an advantage to being different and playing the guys that can take advantage of the PPR scoring. Lamar is different though. You have to factor in the rushing upside and the touchdowns he can get on the ground and I think that makes him the best captain play. I have a big fade in my fade section that will make us different, so I’m not worried about eating chalk here. The thing with Lamar is that you can play him without a receiver since he can create on his own. I think my build today is likely 3-3 since I’m projecting a close game. Lamar with at least one pass catcher and possibly two. Burrow with two is a lock for me with the Higgins injury. I still prefer Lamar in my captain. Tyler Boyd- $6,800 is a great price for a guy that I think could lead the team in targets today. Higgins has missed two games this season and in those games Boyd has seen 19 targets. That’s 9.5 per game and a great spot for Boyd out of the slot where he should see a lot of man coverage. I like Lamar, but I’m not at all hesitating to save captain salary with Boyd tonight if my build requires it. Joe Mixon- I think the Bengals win this game so i want their running back. A couple things stick out to me though. The Ravens lead the league in sacks and that’s not good for Joe Burrow and this offensive line who tends to give up a lot of sacks. This pressure should boost a guy like Mixon in the short passing game. He should see his 15-20 carries, but I think we see 5 plus targets as well here. These are the only 3 I’m considering at captain today.   Flex Plays Joe Burrow- Thus guy is averaging 39 pass attempts a game. He’s been over 40 the last two games and they held leads for a lot of it. 20+ fantasy points is hard not to achieve when he’s dropping back at this rate. Mark Andrews- Tight ends against man heavy schemes are always a good idea. Certainly when they are named Mark Andrews and when they are the quarterbacks favorite weapon. Isaiah Likely- I like these tight ends today. Likely only saw 4 snaps last week which is a tad concerning, but he’s been pretty regularly in the 20-25% snap share range and I expect that number today. When he’s in he can definitely draw some targets. I think the Ravens utilize the tight ends today, that makes $600 a price I’m certainly willing to pay. Kickers- I’m not really on board with the defenses today, but kickers are fair game. I think the $1,200 savings for McPherson is appealing when Burrow and the Bengals could easily stall out with so many pass attempts.   Fades Ja’Marr Chase- More so fading at captain, but I’m actually ok with the complete fade. Chase comes in as the highest priced option on this slate and he’s also got the toughest matchup. Chase and Higgins are actually one of the easier duos in the NFL to project based on matchups. Ja’Marr excels in zone coverage. His first look rate

Tabor’s Takes – MLB Wild Card Round, Day 1

I’m a big fan of all 3 major sports, but nothing, and I mean nothing, comes close to playoff baseball. The suspense riding on every pitch, the emotions, and the huge crowds, it just can’t be beat. We have a 4 game slate today as the wild card round kicks off and I’m here to bring us some winners. I think recent play is huge in playoff baseball. Some teams that come to mind: 2016 Cleveland Indians, nobody expected them to be a contender but they closed the season 21-11 and carried that into a game 7 loss in the World Series. The 2020 Rays closed the Covid-19 shortened 60 game season going 9-2 and also carried that into a World Series appearance. Last year the Philadelphia Phillies got hot as soon as the playoffs began and they made a hell of a run in a very tough National League. My point is, I’m a believer that these things matter. Every team and player is playoff ready emotionally, but playing well leading into the right time is an edge.   Here’s all 8 wild card teams last 10 games: Twins: 7-3 Phillies: 7-3 Rays: 6-4 Rangers: 6-4 Marlins: 6-4 Brewers: 6-4 Diamondbacks: 6-4 Blue Jays: 4-6   Here are bullpen ERAs  Brewers: 3.40 Phillies: 3.56 Blue Jays: 3.68 Rays: 3.83 Twins: 3.95 Diamondbacks: 4.22 Marlins: 4.37 Texas: 4.77   Game by Game    Rangers at Rays- Both of these teams are 6-4 in their last 10. The Rays path to the playoffs was pretty well secured, while the Rangers had to battle a bit to close the season. Tyler Glasnow takes the mound at home here and honestly Glasnow is always in play. Jordan Montgomery definitely sticks out as a someone to avoid pitching here. The ballpark plays as one of the best pitchers parks in all of baseball, but I still can’t consider Montgomery and his lack of strikeouts in this matchup. I’m avoiding Texas bats, but I’m always open to a one off or off the wall mini. You want to attack Glasnow with lefties if you’re forced to play someone. This makes Corey Seager a really intriguing one off with his power and position scarcity. The Rays are an offense that’s definitely in play for me today. Tampa ranked 6th in baseball this season with a team OPS of .784 vs LHP. Montgomery is a pitch to contact guy that can produce ground balls when he’s cooking. I’m looking for fly balls and power on the Rays side. The Texas bullpen is also pathetic and we love to see it. These price tags are really manageable for us today so if we want some savings you shouldn’t look past Tampa. They might be my favorite stack and I expect the Rays to win this game pretty easily.   Blue Jays at Twins- It’s pretty clear that the Blue Jays are struggling. This was the last team in for the American League and they should have been battling to get it done, yet they only won 4 of their last 10 games. The Twins are the opposite and they are at home. Historically the Twins love to choke in the playoffs, but this is a really young group and I expect that not to matter and for them to win this series. This will no doubt be a low scoring affair, Kevin Gausman and Pablo Lopez have both been some of the best in baseball this season. Both of these pitchers stick out to me as great plays on this slate and the splits for these guys really do as well. Both are far better against right handed hitters and these lineups should be chalked full of them. I’m really expecting the Blue Jays to have 6 or 7 righties and Lopez has over a 30% K rate against right handed bats with much less damage compared to the lefties. A reason for concern is the bullpen for Minnesota is pretty good and Rocco has not shown very much patience. I could see a panic pull out of someone that I think is a dog shit manager. On the other side, we have a Twins team that strikes out more than any team on this slate. It’s actually not even close when we compare them, the Twins give Gausman more upside than anybody on this slate by far with all of the swing and miss. The Twins also have a higher team ISO than anyone playing today. Scary power mixed with plenty of Ks. I can tell you that I’m avoiding bats here and it’s extremely likely I pitch one of these 2. I’m torn because I think the Twins win this series and the Jays have been playing terrible ball. At the end of the day, I think Gausman has an unlimited leash here and I think it’s smart to take all the strikeouts we are bound to see when there’s a possibility for 8+ innings. Gausman is my early lean, but I’m fine with both of these guys.   Diamondbacks at Brewers- This might be the toughest game to analyze. We have a Brewers team that I refuse to believe is any good, then you’ve got an Arizona team that’s young and talented, but lacking the pitching to advance in a playoff series. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Pfaadt take the mound here and I expect some offense in this one. Real quick though, if you’ve followed the season of Brandon Pfaadt, then you know he’s extremely hit or miss. He’s given up 22 homeruns in just 96 innings of work, he’s getting smacked around with hard hits on both sides of the dish, but he’s also struck out 94 batters and he’s had plenty games where he’s showcased his pedigree and upside. This was the number 1 pitching prospect in baseball. I mention all of this because $5,300 is a price tag with plenty of wiggle room to hunt for this upside. I doubt I

Tabor’s Takes MLB Breakdown 9-26-23

RPS crushed the DFS streets all weekend long with football. Always nice to see our logo at the top and there was plenty of it! Now we get back into the baseball grind with a nice 11 game slate. The only weather concern is in Chicago where the Diamondbacks play the White Sox. It looks like a late start and play at the moment and I do like the pitching environment there with winds blowing in. Other than that it looks like a clear slate so let’s dive in to what we like! I only play one lineup every day. My style of play is definitely geared towards MME although I’m a single entry player and i feel it gives me a massive edge in these high stake contests. I’ve made a 6 figure profit using this style of play in MLB ALONE for 5 straight seasons now. You’ll always find some hot takes and low owned stacks in these articles to give yourself that same edge.   Pitching Core Michael King– What the hell is Draftkings doing? They took the time to raise his price up $100 from his last start where he went 7 innings and struck out 13 batters. Those batters were part of this same Blue Jays team that he’s facing again today. King is a strikeout machine and he’s fully stretched as a starter now. This dude has looked like every bit of an ace for the Yankees since moving out of the bullpen to a starting role. I much prefer Gausman at home and I hate pitching 2 guys from the same game on an 11 game slate where 2 wins are sure to be had out of your pitchers, but Draftkings is really making this difficult. $6K is egregious and should probably be taken advantage of no matter how bad I want to fade. Look out for my core in the discord to see if I give in here, if you’re not in the discord then get signed up already, what the hell are you waiting for! Kevin Gausman- I love playing guys that just saw the same opponent in their most recent start. That puts Gausman and King both in great spots here. Gausman is the more reliable option. He’s also been extremely dominant vs right handed bats and his splits at home are a beautiful sight to see. Everything in this decision is going to depend on my bats today. If I’m spending up I’m obviously going with King, if my salary allows me to then I definitely want to get Gausman into my lineup over him. There’s always still the chance I roster both, but I think it’s unlikely. Seth Lugo- This is just one of safest plays on the board and I think his price is right. The Giants don’t scare me and Lugo is right around a K per inning. Aside from fantasy, this dude is just a good real life pitcher. He’s almost a lock for 20 points every time he takes the mound. The only thing not to like is that his ceiling doesn’t stretch far at all. His average score is probably 20, I don’t think he’s hit 30 all year and he’s only got a handful of single digit/ negative performances. Safe, but not slate breaking stuff. Still I think $8,400 is a great price for the 20 points he’s going to get us tonight.   Other Options Zach Davies- I almost put Davies in my core, but the chance of rain has me switching back and forth on him and Lugo. Lugo is certainly the safer of these two options, but the price tag of $5,300 for Davies gives us a ton of wiggle room here. I love the idea of Davies and King with the Dodgers in Coors or a low owned Braves stack that we see crush in any matchup. Davies gets a really really bad White Sox team tonight, he’s favorited and should get the win, it’s 65 degrees and the winds are blowing in over 10mph, and Davies has struck out 69 batters in 79 innings. Those strikeouts are pretty solid for a guy in this price range and I’m very intrigued. He has a 23.5% K rate against righties on the year and this lineup has 6 of them. There’s no Luis Robert and there’s so many Ks to be had here. Absolutely love this play if the weather cooperates with us. Paul Blackburn- We all know the story of the Minnesota Twins, tons of power and extra base hits in this lineup, but they also strikeout more than any team on this slate and that has to put Blackburn on our radars. Righties do more damage with his reverse splits and the righties here are Christian Vazquez, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor. To say that’s a less than scary group is accurate and Blackburn brings plenty of upside with his 23% K rate in this matchup.   Stack Em Dodgers- They are in Coors against one of the leagues worst pitching staffs. 1-9 are in play. Braves- I know Justin Steele is really good, but this is the fucking Braves against a lefty. I don’t care who’s on the mound the Braves are definitely in play here. You want to focus on fly ball hitters here to combat Steeles impressive GB rate. Basically Acuna, Harris, and Arcia hit the ball on the ground. Everyone else looks great! Rangers- The more I look at this article the more I realize I’m definitely doing the double spend down at pitcher. There’s just too much upside in some of these bats in these matchups and the Rangers fall in that category. When Reid Detmers has it going he’s one of the best arms in the game, it’s honestly rolling the dice on which Detmers you’re going to get. The good thing is that 5 sides of that dice give you hard hits galore and meatballs with