Best Ball Strategy Series: Fading in Best Ball

In my weekly strategy video, I discussed the difference between fading in best ball vs. fading in daily fantasy. After 10 years of playing DFS, it’s hard to shift mindsets on how fading and ownership differ in best ball. But they do. I’ll get more into ownership and exposure in best ball in the next couple of weeks. But let’s talk about why it’s fine to make big stands and fades in best ball and how it’s different from DFS fades. In DFS, we have an approximate ownership projection of players before the slate locks and we make stands to fade or go underweight/overweight on a player. If you’re wrong on a DFS fade, it can crush your ROI for the week. Not necessarily the case in best ball and here’s why. First of all, most players are going to be 100% drafted/owned or near that. Ownership to the playoffs or best ball Finals is very unique because it means that a low-owned player was actually injured or underperformed his ADP. We’ll get more into that next week. HOW FADES WORK IN BEST BALL: If you make a big fade and you’re wrong on that player, you’re lineup still isn’t dead. You just need one or both of these things to happen: -That player you faded has at least one poor performance in the playoffs, especially relative to his ADP. -More importantly, you just need to be right/have the right combo on your strong stands. A strong lineup of yours can still compete even with a player you faded that has outperformed their ADP and/or had great best ball playoffs. I basically faded both Jalen Hurts and Josh Jacobs last year. Really makes you want to take best ball advice from me right? But in all seriousness, I still had a 27% advance rate to playoffs and had a team in Underdog’s BBM3 Finals.  On Underdog and DraftKings it didn’t hurt me because Jacobs had a weak playoffs overall (especially quarter & semi-finals) and Hurts was injured and out for the semi-finals and finals. Also, my players that I had high exposure to performed well in playoffs, especially on my Underdog BBM3 Finals team. Note:  You can’t really miss on players that vastly outperform their ADP in the Drafters’ best ball since its truly season-long weeks 1-17 cumulative scoring. But on Underdog Fantasy and DraftKings, you can make bigger stands and risky fades if you feel it can give you an edge. There just needs to be a reason for your fades that makes sense when you’re drafting.   REASONS TO FADE IN BEST BALL: -Player is being overvalued (ADP is too high) and you strongly feel he will underperform his ADP -Weak offense (especially on Underdog Fantasy when touchdown hunting) -Poor coaching or supporting cast (offensive line for QBs and RBs for example) -Difficult strength of schedule/match-ups -Difficult playoff schedule or bad conditions (potential bad winter weather) -Injury risks -Suspension not worth ADP You can read more about my stance on fading in best ball here. Our fades are going to vary depending on our stands on teams and players and that’s fine. Just make sure there is context or reasoning to fading a player best ball. Check out my best ball fades (or very underweight) through mid-July here.  Similar to DFS, even if we max enter, we don’t want to draft everyone. So don’t be afraid to make stands or fades in best ball. Look for more on ownership and exposures in best ball in upcoming weekly strategy articles. Article produced by Megs – Use code SUMMER33 for 33% off your first month at RunPureSports OUR PARTNERSHIPS UNDERDOG – CLICK HERE – USE CODE RUNPURE YOUTUBE – Subscribe Here!

Best Ball Stock Report: July 11

Each Tuesday, I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying). The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot. I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week. Hopefully, this helps your best ball draft process this summer as ADPs evolve.   BIGGEST RISERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the BOTTOM) Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: James Conner RB ARI 85.35 -2.23 Cam Akers RB LAR 67 -2.58 Antonio Gibson RB WAS 98.44 -2.7 Robert Woods WR HOU 203.55 -2.72 Chigoziem Okonkwo TE TEN 126.91 -2.73 Van Jefferson WR LAR 138.67 -2.8 Brock Purdy QB SF 171.44 -2.83 Tyler Higbee TE LAR 144.26 -2.84 Rashid Shaheed WR NO 163.38 -2.89 Kyler Murray QB ARI 162.4 -2.95 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 150.65 -2.96 David Montgomery RB DET 79.1 -3.3 Romeo Doubs WR GB 119.15 -3.43 Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI 167.89 -3.68 Terrace Marshall WR CAR 206.7 -4 Diontae Johnson WR PIT 58.88 -4.02 Taysom Hill TE NO 157.53 -4.02 Nico Collins WR HOU 125.95 -5.94 DeVante Parker WR NE 195.97 -9.52 Tim Patrick WR DEN 176.56 -11.02     BIGGEST FALLERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the TOP) Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Tyquan Thornton WR NE 171.3 7.3 Jalin Hyatt WR NYG 195.47 5 Jayden Reed WR GB 168.82 4.35 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR NE 113.93 4.19 Chase Claypool WR CHI 210.41 3.65 Michael Pittman WR IND 66.13 3.6 Michael Gallup WR DAL 135.59 3.56 Alec Pierce WR IND 152.86 3.47 Pierre Strong RB NE 202.65 3.34 Dalton Kincaid TE BUF 132.12 3.32 Dalvin Cook RB 87.51 2.84 Leonard Fournette RB 200.31 2.75 DeAndre Hopkins WR 46.03 2.69 Wan’Dale Robinson WR NYG 200.08 2.63 John Metchie WR HOU 182.44 2.49 Juwan Johnson TE NO 170.93 2.38 Jakobi Meyers WR LV 123.97 2.28 Chuba Hubbard RB CAR 183.41 2.2 Raheem Mostert RB MIA 172.33 2.05 Damien Harris RB BUF 116.52 1.99   STILL BULLISH: *These players have been on my bullish list, and remain on my bullish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below. -QB Brock Purdy – The continued price rise shows that market knows Purdy will be the 49ers’ starting QB. The 49ers were in the top 10 in most offensive statistical categories last year and I think the offense could be even better this year. So this is still too cheap access to this top offense. -RB Kenneth Gainwell – Another one that stays on the bullish list even though his price continues to rise.  I have a ton of shares of Gainwell, but I still think he’s too cheap. -WR Tim Patrick – His price continues to skyrocket, but it’s not too high for me yet. I think if he continues to show his recovery is going well, his price will rise more each month. I have a lot of Patrick shares already because I’m bullish on a Sean Payton-led Broncos offense and this is cheap exposure to that. -WR Jayden Reed – Not sure why Reed is falling. But he is one of my favorite later-round receivers to target. I think he has a very strong chance to make an impact for the Packers’ in the slot as a rookie. -WR Michael Gallup – Maybe Gallup’s price is going down because people are just heavier on CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. Yes, Gallup is the 3rd WR in this offense. But this should be a top 5-10 offense and one that I want to have heavy exposure to. I already have a ton of Gallup shares, and I want plenty more, especially if his price is falling. He’s in an offense I love and a perfect spike week/best ball type receiver at that price.   BULLISH: -All the Rams (Matthew Stafford, Cam Akers, Tyler Higbee and Van Jefferson) – Because drafters now feel more confident about Stafford and Kupp’s health, the market has realized that the Rams were going way too low. I have been more and more interested in drafting Rams as these prices as the draft season has progressed. And I’ll continue to draft them, as I think their prices are still too low. -David Montgomery – I have been on the Lions and Monty since the beginning of draft season and I’m continuing to stack up the Lions offense as much as I can. Great offense, tons of dome games, and a great playoff schedule…I am fully invested in the Lions putting up a lot of points this season. -Dalton Kinkaid – His price has cooled since the draft, but that’s just the market adjusting. I like this price for Kinkaid and I’ve drafted him all best ball season. I think he plays a big Cole Beasley slot role for the Bills. To have a red zone target in the Bills’ offense is something I’m very interested in, especially on Underdog. -Damien Harris – There were some reports recently that Harris we’ll compete with Latavius Murray for the bruising goal line back role in the Bills’ offense. Harris is seven years younger than Murray and has shown his upside with the Patriots. I think he’s the goalline back for the Bills and I’ll

Best Ball Strategy Series: Avoiding Dead Roster Spots

I always love looking at my best ball playoff teams from last year, especially my BBM3 Finals team on Underdog. But what is more beneficial is to look at the bad teams. The teams that placed 10th-12th in the pod and look at WHY those teams did so poorly. Yes, this is very results-based, and in some cases like injuries, you have no control. But in other cases, like roster constructions, stacking or player stands, my bad teams left me asking myself, “What was I thinking?” In my weekly strategy video, I discussed the importance of avoiding dead roster spots or unusable players. These are players that don’t give you any points throughout the best ball season, and I’ll include the Hassan Haskins and Jalen Tolbert’s that gave me under 2 points all season! Yikes! REASONS FOR DEAD ROSTER SPOTS: -Injuries: We have no control over this one. Well, we may know certain players are more injury-prone. Or certain positions or archtypes of players (like rushing QBs) may be prone to more injuries. In these cases, you may just want to make sure your roster construction or positional allocation accounts for this. (See the Trey Lance & Matthew Stafford lineup below). But in the end, injuries are out of our control.   -Benchings: Certain players could be benched due to inefficient play, QB being the most likely. This would most likely be your 3rd QB. If you’re only drafting two QBs, I would recommend not having the QB2 be a QB in the late rounds who could be at risk of being benched.   -Sliding Down Depth Chart/No True Playing Time: Trusting training camp buzz is hard to trust and a tricky thing for best ball drafts and ADPs to buy. It is important throughout the entire summer we make sure there is context to every report and not make knee-jerk draft reactions to Twitter buzz or camp reports. Really think through and dig deeper at the reports or the buzz on a particular player to make sure there is actual signal and not just noise. I’ll have plenty more strategy articles on this topic as the NFL Preseason starts! There are plenty more screenshots from my bad best ball teams last year where I was guilty of buying into buzz on a player. My top dead roster spots last year were Hassan Haskins, Chris Evans, Isaiah Spiller, Mark Ingram, Jalen Tolbert, and Sky Moore. Not cute, but there was a time last summer when I had really bought into these players having a potentially valuable role on their offense for their ADP.   SO HOW DO WE DRAFT LATE-ROUND FLIERS? First of all, I’m not saying your lineup has to be perfect. I didn’t pull the #math or spreadsheets to tell you the more live players you have going into playoffs, the better position you are in to make playoffs and succeed in playoffs. Considering that it’s football and injuries will happen, you should set yourself up to limit dead roster spots. Basically, don’t get too cute with too many true fliers. These are players whose value is contingent on another player being injured or traded. Or players that would really need to make a huge jump on the depth chart. Yes, there has been true handcuff running backs that end up being late-round heroes due to injury or trades. Two years ago, Rashaad Penny stepped in for Chris Carson and Justin Jackson stepped in for Austin Ekeler (week 16) and provided massive scores. Last year, we saw Samjae Perine and D’Onta Foreman have major spike weeks during the season when they got the lead role. And each year, whether it’s a young receiver or a receiver further down the depth chart, we see a few guys emerge with spike weeks. But these are of course hard to identify, especially before training camps and preseason. The good news about best ball is if you miss on a guy that was able to step into a great role, that doesn’t mean your team is dead. You just need to have a good team to compete. Plenty more on fading on best ball this summer. But the point is, don’t try to hit on every possible handcuff RB, because in reality, only a few will hit.   HOW I’M HANDLING LATE ROUND PICKS: -I’m only drafting two or three players per draft that really need injuries to emerge (true fliers). This is why I have usually drafted my 4th RB on Underdog by the 130s. It’s also why I don’t mind spending late-round picks on a 3rd QB or 2nd and/or 3rd TE right now. These picks don’t need an injury to be on the field to contribute to their team and your best ball team. -In the mid to late rounds, I would rather draft running backs in committees than a true handcuff RB that needs an injury to get on the field. -For receivers, I really am focusing on the top 3 receiving options on NFL teams for the most part. Like I said, maybe one or two per draft I’ll take a true flier pick on. But you don’t want to have several of these types of receivers on one team or it could look like the team below. -As much as I love elite TEs, this is another reason why I don’t mind a late-round or “zero TE” strategy where I just draft 3 TEs in the last five or six  rounds. There is plenty of value there where TDs can be found. Who knows, maybe you’ll draft this year’s Evan Engram. -Once preseason reports are firmer, then I’ll be willing to take more shots on handcuff running backs as late-round fliers. For now, I’d rather spend my late-round picks on positions with more clarity – QBs, TEs, and WRs that are still likely 3rd on the depth charts or routes run this season. Bottom line…there is risk with all these late-round picks. Try to find

Best Ball Stock Report: July 5

Each Tuesday, I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying). The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot. I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week. Hopefully, this helps your best ball draft process this summer as ADPs evolve.   BIGGEST RISERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the top) Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Tim Patrick WR DEN 187.58 -15.22 DeVante Parker WR NE 205.49 -9.45 Brock Purdy QB SF 174.27 -6.92 Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI 171.57 -5.62 Taysom Hill TE NO 161.55 -5.02 Parris Campbell WR NYG 175.76 -4.8 Pierre Strong RB NE 199.31 -4.73 Romeo Doubs WR GB 122.58 -4.03 Cordarrelle Patterson RB ATL 204.36 -3.35 Gus Edwards RB BAL 185.24 -3.25 Mike Gesicki TE NE 184.29 -3.01 Mac Jones QB NE 198.94 -2.93 Trey McBride TE ARI 201.38 -2.71 Tua Tagovailoa QB MIA 91.94 -2.66 Greg Dulcich TE DEN 134.05 -2.64 Antonio Gibson RB WAS 101.14 -2.48 Desmond Ridder QB ATL 204.54 -2.31 Cam Akers RB LAR 69.58 -2.26 Samaje Perine RB DEN 104.65 -2.21 Kyler Murray QB ARI 165.35 -2.14       FALLERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the bottom) Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: DJ Chark WR CAR 157.65 2.04 Alec Pierce WR IND 149.39 2.05 Ty Chandler RB MIN 194.76 2.17 Hunter Renfrow WR LV 188.85 2.46 Curtis Samuel WR WAS 173.81 2.51 Jayden Reed WR GB 164.47 2.68 Kareem Hunt RB 208.55 2.71 Michael Gallup WR DAL 132.03 2.78 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR NE 109.74 2.88 Raheem Mostert RB MIA 170.28 2.89 Tyler Conklin TE NYJ 190.08 3.17 Rashee Rice WR KC 143.97 3.39 Juwan Johnson TE NO 168.55 3.7 Trey Lance QB SF 211.07 3.75 Mecole Hardman WR NYJ 207.21 4.35 John Metchie WR HOU 179.95 4.39 Chase Claypool WR CHI 206.76 5.47 Josh Downs WR IND 210.3 7.39 Wan’Dale Robinson WR NYG 197.45 9.76 Jalin Hyatt WR NYG 190.47 11.99   STILL BULLISH: *These players have been on my bullish list, and remain on my bullish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below. -QB Brock Purdy – The continued price rise shows that market knows Purdy will be the 49ers’ starting QB. The 49ers were in the top 10 in most offensive statistical categories last year and I think the offense could be even better this year. So this is still too cheap access to this top offense. -RB Kenneth Gainwell – Another one that stays on the bullish list even though his price continues to rise.  I have a ton of shares of Gainwell, but I still think he’s too cheap. -RB Ty Chandler – This is one late-round handcuff I’m interested in, especially with his price falling a bit. Mattison has never had a season-long bell cow role, so I think Chandler will have a nice RB2 role. -WR Rashee Rice – Pinning down a Chiefs’ receiving option is hard outside of Kelce, but I like the rookie here if his price is falling. Hopefully, he can get involved early and play that JuJu slot role. -WR Tim Patrick – His price is starting to skyrocket, but it’s not too high for me yet. I think if he continues to show his recovery is going well, his price will rise more each month. I have a lot of Patrick shares already because I’m bullish on a Sean Payton-led Broncos offense and this is cheap exposure to that. BULLISH: -RB Gus Edwards –  I have been drafting Edwards as one of my last RBs a ton already and a slight price increase is not going to slow me down. -QB Tua Tagovailoa – It does not surprise me to see Tua slowly creeping up. When healthy last year, he put up monster numbers and was a great best ball QB. I know the “when healthy part” is what scares people. I’m not scared off and love this offense. Maybe just draft 2 other QBs with him if you are concerned about his health. -QB Desmond Ridder – The Falcons offense could make a big leap this year. With Kyle Pitts back, Drake London’s 2nd year, and adding RB Bijan Robinson, this offense has the pieces in place to put up points. Oh yeah, they also have one of the NFL’s easiest schedules this season. -WR Jayden Reed – Not sure why Reed is falling. But he is one of my favorite later-round receivers to target. I think he has a very strong chance to make an impact for the Packers’ in the slot as a rookie. -WR Michael Gallup – Maybe Gallup’s price is going down because people are just heavier on CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. Yes, Gallup is the 3rd WR in this offense. But this should be a top 5-10 offense and one that I want to have heavy exposure to. I already have a ton of Gallup shares, and I want plenty more, especially if his price is falling. He’s in an offense I love and a perfect spike week/best ball type receiver at that price.     STILL BEARISH: *These players have been on my bearish list, and remain

Best Ball Interview Series: RubioDimes

The RunPureSports Best Ball interview series concludes this week with our very own RubioDimes! I talked to Rubio about his best ball experiences and strategies. The great thing about best ball, is you can have different player takes and strategies and still find a path to success. Just like DFS, you can play best ball differently and that doesn’t make it right or wrong. It’s quite interesting to hear different best ball players’ strategies and stories of success. And that’s what makes this RPS interview series so fun! So let’s hear from Rubio! How long have you played best ball? I’ve dabbled in the Best Ball streets a little bit, never going all out to MME until this year though. The first year I played I did a few drafts on DK and ended up falling just one round short of the finals. Was damn close, but now chasing that big win. Last year I had great success *Borat tribute* in the playoff Best Ball format. I was drafting teams the night before the playoffs started because I couldn’t sleep, and ended up getting 2 mostly dead teams into the final round as well! Very fun format though and I can’t wait to crush it this year.   Why do you love best ball? There’s edge, I love playing DFS when there is an edge. No matter the sport and while the daily isn’t necessarily there with Best Ball, there’s a significant edge, and putting yourself in a position to win is all you can ask for. I love the amount of strategies that can go into a draft. The nuances of everything that we do as well. We’re likely a group of people who have played fantasy football all our lives. Best Ball gives that taste of the season-long format while getting some major money down in the process.   “Best” best ball experience? Since I only dabbled, it was quite a bit of fun making the playoffs’ best ball final last year. Obviously, that format is a bit different where you move on after each round of the playoffs and I ended up having a Chiefs-49ers stack and a Bengals-49ers stack make the last 80 teams. Obviously, with the 49ers failing badly to the Eagles, both of those teams didn’t have a shot to make the final, but was still extremely fun.   Which best ball site do you like the best? DraftKings all the way, and not because they gave me a bucket hat. I just like the UI quite a bit albeit the colors on Underdog are so sick. The music that you get when it is your turn to pick on DraftKings reminds me of the old Sportscenter days too. Def gets me in the mood to draft Best Ball teams. Also, I don’t think it is a secret anymore, DraftKings seems to have a less sharp field which is GREAT for ROI.   Favorite lineup construction for best ball? So one thing I’m fiddling with right now is with a stacked WR corp that you get when playing 0 RB teams is how many WR’s do you need? I’m thinking the number is 7 right now on Underdog, and 8-9 on DK (Since DK obviously has 2 extra rounds). On DK my first team that I drafted was a 3QB – 6RB – 8WR – 3TE team. I don’t hate that at all. I usually only want two QB’s ever but my main QB was Jalen Hurts, he takes a few hits, causing me to draft that third QB though it is not something I usually do.  On Underdog I also like taking 6 RB’s the reason being though is I’m bullish on the amount of running backs that can impact a team. There’s so many RB’s nowadays with at least a role in the offense and are an injury away from being the feature back. To me with these late-round picks there’s way more upside going to a 2nd string RB than a 3rd-4th string WR.   Favorite best ball strategy? 0 RB all the way. I’m sure we will talk about this on shows, but I love the idea of waiting at least 6-7 picks before my first RB goes off the board. I just think in this day and age, WR’s are just so important and it is even more apparent on DK where the full point PPR brings so many of these RB’s into play that get cut a few points compared to Underdog. I love stacking up my WR’s and making sure I get the stacks for my QB’s. I won’t go completely out of the way to not take a Running Back early, but def is not my target.   Favorite Early Round Pick in 2023? Tail end of the first-round, I love CeeDee Lamb. Think he has a major year, potentially leading the league in catches. I really like the outlook for him to have a huge year. There was some talk with Amari Cooper a year ago who basically said the reason Lamb was being held back was because of Kellen Moore. Well, Moore is gone now, big things for the former Sooner this season.   Favorite Late-Round Pick in 2023? Chase Brown – Samaje Perine was extremely effective for the Bengals last year. This may be considered a homer pick but the dudes going ahead of Brown right now will look silly come August when Brown is looking sure-fire to be the #2 guy this year behind Mixon. He was a stud in college and had good hands as well. Legit the only question with him is: Will he be able to pass-block effectively to stay on the field? I’m willing to bet on yes. He’s my guy I’ll be very overweight on and can’t wait to see him make an immediate impact this season.     WEEKLY RPS BEST BALL INTERVIEWS: MEG GLOCK JAYME KURT VIP RUBIO     Article produced by Megs

Best Ball Strategy Series: How to Draft Different Lineup Constructions Effectively

Generally speaking on Underdog Fantasy, you want to stay within the ranges below for each position in an 18-round best ball draft. QB:  2-3 RB:  4-7 WR:  6-9 TE:  2-3 *Note, one more total could be added to RB, WR and TE for DraftKings and Drafters. And I draft mostly 3 QBs on DraftKings with 20 total picks. What is most important, however, is how you use your draft capital effectively to build a solid lineup that has a chance to be in the top 2 at the end of the regular season to make best ball playoffs. Then of course, you want that lineup to be built to make it through the playoffs to have a chance to make the best ball Finals in week 17. In my weekly strategy video, I discussed the importance of building with different lineup constructions, but doing so correctly and effectively. The very short summary would be for each position group, you either want quality (high draft picks/capital) or quantity, but not both. You’ll hear a lot of analysts in the best ball space talk about diminishing returns. Basically, that means smaller returns or benefits, despite more capital invested in it. Simply put, if you are drafting a Zero RB strategy and you draft 5 receivers with your first 6 draft picks, does it make much sense to draft a total of 9 receivers? No, not at all. Because you spent all that high capital on receivers, you are banking on them being your starters and depth at WR. So in this type of build, you should only draft 6 or 7 receivers total. This is because you’ll need to devote more quantity to the other positions that you didn’t draft early. This can be applied for all positions, but it’s most important for the RB and WR positions where higher quantities are being drafted. I have some galaxy brain ideas about drafting 3 QBs or 3 TEs even with high draft capital at those positions to help push lower-owned players though to playoffs. But that is a whole other strategy article altogether! So let’s break down the four main lineup constructions you hear people talk about most often and how to draft them effectively. Please note, not all your drafts have to fit exactly into these lineup constructions. There can be a lot of hybrid builds to these.   ZERO RB: -Draft capital:  Waiting until rounds 5 or 6 to draft your first RB, while you spend your first several picks on WR and/or QB and TE. -Quantity:  Since you are waiting to draft your first RB, you need to rely on quantity. Draft at least 6-7 RBs in these builds. Draft only 6-7 WR in these builds. Hayden Winks discussed this in a 2022 Underdog Network article on how to draft zero RB effectively. He discusses the diminishing returns if you draft too many receivers in a zero RB build. -Notes: Because Zero RB was very effective in 2022, Zero RB is a VERY popular strategy in 2023 drafts with wide receivers going off the board early and often. Note, the history of zero RB in best ball has been truly mixed – 2020 was average, 2021 was bad and 2022 was awesome. It all depends on which studs and value picks hit. I still believe its a viable, strong strategy, though I personally like it better on full PPR sites like DraftKings. But if you draft a true zero RB lineup, make sure to do it correctly and do not overload the receiver position with quantity.   HERO RB: -Draft capital:  Draft a stud RB in Round 1 or 2. Then address the other positions (similar to Zero RB) and come back to fill out the RB position in round 8 forward. -Quantity:  Since you drafted one stud RB, I think you can draft 5-6 RBs total in this type of build. I still would recommend not overloading the WR if you draft several early after your stud RB. If draft several receivers early, then I would draft a max of 8. I usually prefer 7 WR in this type of build. -Notes: Sometimes called Anchor RB, because you are anchoring your team with one hero RB. Then from there it kinda morphs into a Zero RB build.   DOUBLE/DUAL/BIMODAL HERO RB: -Draft capital:  Draft 2 RBs in the first 3 rounds (I think you could push this definition to the top 4 rounds this year with the way RBs are falling). -Quantity:  Since you drafted 2 stud RBs, then you definitely draft a max of 5 RBs total. Just like zero RB, you will reach diminishing returns if you invest too much quantity at the RB positon after you invested such high draft capital. One you draft your first RB, then focus on WR, QB and TE starters before you go back to the RB position. -Notes: The key to this strategy is after you pick your first 2 RBs, then do not draft another RB most likely until at least Round 10 (unless a great value or stack falls to you). This allows you to fill out your roster with quality still at the other positions. Believe it or not, even in the year of the WR avalanche, I believe you can still draft WRs, QBs and TEs you can count on as long as you follow this rule. See how I implemented this strategy with RBs Nick Chubb (Round 2) and Breece Hall (Round 3) in this RunPureSports Underdog Live Draft.   ROBUST RB: -Draft capital:  Draft 3 RBs in first 5 rounds. -Quantity:  Since you invested so much capital early on RB, you can take a good compliment RB or two in the later rounds like a Kenneth Gainwell. This is the type of lineup construction that you would need to draft 8-9 WR to make up in quantity what you lacked in high draft capital. -Notes: I rarely use this strategy, but if RBs

Best Ball ADP Stock Report – June 27

Each Tuesday, I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying). The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot. I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week. Look for this weekly column every Tuesday night! And hopefully, this helps your best ball draft process this summer as ADPs evolve.   BIGGEST RISERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the top) Name: Position: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Parris Campbell WR NYG 180.56 -17.84 Luke Musgrave TE GB 199.15 -5.41 Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI 177.19 -5.28 Taysom Hill TE NO 166.57 -4.17 Jaylen Warren RB PIT 135.81 -3.97 Romeo Doubs WR GB 126.61 -3.93 Skyy Moore WR KC 114.73 -3.83 Alexander Mattison RB MIN 60.98 -3.59 Brock Purdy QB SF 181.19 -3.38 Van Jefferson WR LAR 142.88 -3.34 Antonio Gibson RB WAS 103.62 -3.27 Khalil Shakir WR BUF 184.53 -2.83 Nico Collins WR HOU 132.54 -2.7 Tyler Boyd WR CIN 104.18 -2.68 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC 153.2 -2.6 Isaiah Hodgins WR NYG 176.55 -2.54 Cordarrelle Patterson RB ATL 207.71 -2.44 Tim Patrick WR DEN 202.8 -2.43 Pierre Strong RB NE 204.04 -2.33 Brandon Aiyuk WR SF 52.28 -2.3     FALLERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the bottom) Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Ezekiel Elliott RB 176 1.76 Cole Kmet TE CHI 146.74 1.77 Michael Pittman WR IND 61.27 1.8 Ty Chandler RB MIN 192.59 1.84 Robert Woods WR HOU 206.55 1.85 Devon Achane RB MIA 120.37 1.93 Evan Engram TE JAX 97.02 1.94 Chase Brown RB CIN 190.21 2.14 Miles Sanders RB CAR 63.89 2.16 David Njoku TE CLE 104.89 2.31 Dalton Schultz TE HOU 138.68 2.38 Jonathan Mingo WR CAR 137.94 2.7 Rashee Rice WR KC 140.58 2.74 Dalvin Cook RB 83.41 3.55 Josh Downs WR IND 202.91 3.64 Chase Claypool WR CHI 201.29 4.49 Michael Mayer TE LV 208.66 5.02 Wan’Dale Robinson WR NYG 187.69 7.83 Trey Lance QB SF 207.32 8.39 Jalin Hyatt WR NYG 178.48 11.31   BULLISH: -QB Brock Purdy – Purdy was my cover boy last week and he stays on my bullish list this week. The 49ers were in the top 10 in most offensive statistical categories last year and I think the offense could be even better this year. So this is still too cheap access to this top offense. -RB Kenneth Gainwell – Another one that stays on the bullish list even though his price continues to rise.  I have a ton of shares of Gainwell, but I still think he’s too cheap. -TE Luke Musgrave – His price keeps rising but it’s definitely not high enough for me to jump off. Grab more shares before it his price continues to skyrocket throughout preseason. -TE Michael Mayer – Still bullish and still do not understand why Mayer has continued to fall. I’m guessing it’s uncertainty about Jimmy Garappolo’s health. But have faith that Jimmy G will be the starter or they have a good backup plan. This is incredible value to get this talented rookie TE in an offense that likes targeting TEs (HC Josh McDaniels and Garappolo). -RB Dalvin Cook – I would continue to take more Cook because once he lands with the Dolphins or any decent spot, his price will rise significantly more. -RB Ty Chandler – This is one late-round handcuff I’m interested in, especially with his price falling a bit. Mattison has never had a season-long bell cow role, so I think Chandler will have a nice RB2 role. -WR Rashee Rice – Pinning down a Chiefs’ receiving option is hard outside of Kelce, but I like the rookie here if his price is falling. Hopefully, he can get involved early and play that JuJu slot role. -RB Miles Sanders – I still think Sanders has a great role on the Panthers and will happily draft him a discount. -TE David Njoku – His price may be falling due to fear that DeAndre Hopkins could land in Cleveland. But I’ll take a little discount on a redzone weapon on a good offense. -WR Tim Patrick – I think if he continues to show his recovery is going well, his price will rise more each month. I have a lot of Patrick shares already because I’m bullish on a Sean Payton-led Broncos offense and this is cheap exposure to that. BEARISH: -WR Parris Campbell – Still bearish – The Giants’ WR room is so crowded, I’m not going to draft a receiver who is up 17 spots. If I’m drafting a Giants’ receiver, I’ll take the discount with Darius Slayton or a slightly elevated price in Isaiah Hodgins. -WR Jalin Hyatt & Wandale Robinson – See above. I think these two Giants’ receivers are falling for good reason. Such a crowded room and I’d rather follow the talent of Hodgins and the talent/salary of Slayton playing on the outside. Hyatt is one rookie receiver that I don’t think is in a strong position to break out his rookie year. -QB Trey Lance – Still bearish – Obviously if I think Purdy is QB1 in San Francisco, then I’m fading Lance. -WR Romeo Doubs – Still bearish – He rose

Best Ball Interview Series: VIP

The RunPureSports Best Ball interview series continues! And this week I talked to RunPure’s very own VIP about his best ball experiences and strategies. The great thing about best ball, is you can have different player takes and strategies and still find a path to success. Just like DFS, you can play best ball differently and that doesn’t make it right or wrong. It’s quite interesting to hear different best ball players’ strategies and stories of success. And that’s what makes this RPS interview series so fun! So let’s hear VIP! How long have you played best ball? I have dabbled in Best Ball’s for the past 2-3 years but really got deep into last year and this year. I think I used it as a way to start my research into season-long leagues. But the more I’ve drafted and researched, the more I realized the different strategies and lineup construction methodologies.   Why do you love best ball? I really do love the sweat of the year-long experience here. You get to be early-on players (rookies, sleepers, buried in the depth chart) that are either an injury away or play themselves into a big contributing role! You truly can be “first” on someone.   “Best” best ball experience? Haven’t had that “big” win yet, but it’s definitely coming!! $$$   Which best ball site do you like the best? I’ve only really done DraftKings and UnderDog for Best Balls. I think each has its strengths and weakness. Obviously, the prize pools are serious this year, so both are going to be a fun sweat. I almost feel that because Draftkings has such a bigger name, they may be able to attract a few more casuals that will play and thus can create a chance in some drafts to really get some good value but at the end of the day, you’re competing against sooo many sharps that you gotta have that lucky horseshoe helping all year!   Favorite lineup construction for best ball? I think letting the draft come to me and adapting as I go is how I construct my lineups. Now most of the time will try to do 2-3 QBs, 4-6 RBs, 7-9 WRs, and 2-3 TEs and just see how the draft unravels.   Favorite best ball strategy? IDK if I have a favorite strategy now. I think we’ve gone through so many cycles of “running back heavy”/”Zero RB”/”WR early+QB” etc etc etc that each draft now is more let it come to me and then understand how to adapt on the fly. I think correlation is key within Best Balls and something that I definitely do. I try to pick 2/3 teams to stack after the studs are gone and go heavy on my favorite offenses. I feel like understanding your opponent (11 people you are against) is as much of a strategy and zigging where they are zagging as picking your players.   Favorite Early Round Pick in 2023? I think I get impeached from the President of the Cowboys fan club if I don’t say Ceedee Lamb or Pollard lol but I think I love the bounce back for Kupp (not sneaky) this year. I also really like the Jags offense, think they take the next step. And DJ Moore, I think he’s gonna get ALLLL the targets there and a great 4th/5th round snag.   Favorite Late-Round Pick in 2023? This is really dependent on the teams I’m stacking. If it’s a rookie TE or undrafted WR who’s been getting huge praise in the off-season. This is where you get to plant your flags based on your team’s drafting. A few I think that are fun are Jeff Wilson, Josh Downs, Ty Chandler, Nathaniel Dell, Tyjae Spears, and Puka Nacua.     WEEKLY RPS BEST BALL INTERVIEWS: MEG GLOCK JAYME KURT VIP   Article produced by Megs – Use code MEG15 for 15% off your first month at RunPureSports OUR PARTNERSHIPS UNDERDOG – CLICK HERE – USE CODE RUNPURE YOUTUBE – Subscribe Here!

Best Ball Strategy Series: Analyzing Best Ball Playoff Schedules

My weekly best ball strategy tip of the week video was about best ball playoff schedules. Cue the Jim Mora gif…but yes, we are talking about playoffs! Best Ball playoffs are weeks 15-17 (Dec. 14-18, Dec. 21-25, Dec. 28-31). Pretty amazing way to spend your holidays, right?! It may seem like a galaxy brain strategy to analyze teams’ best ball playoff schedules (weeks 15-17), but any extra layers to can add to your best ball process and drafting strategy may give you the micro edges you need to succeed. Our friends at Fanspeak.com analyzed all 32 teams playoff schedules here. I look at three main factors when analyzing teams’ best ball playoff schedules. 1 – The defensive match-up for the offense 2 – Potential Shootouts 3- Weather/game environment I think it is important to look at the entire playoff schedule for each team, and not just week 17. We have to get to week 17 for a chance at all the money, and then we want a well-built team with a chance to succeed in Week 17. I will analyze the defensive matchups when we get closer to the season. Today, I want to highlight potential shootouts throughout the best ball playoff schedule and weather/dome games in the best ball playoffs. POTENTIAL SHOOTOUTS WEEKS 15-17: *Note:  These teams have 2 of the 3 playoff weeks that I identified as a potential shootout. This is hard to predict in June, but it is something to consider. -Baltimore – @Jacksonville, @ San Francisco, Miami -Buffalo – Dallas, @ LA Chargers, New England -Cincinnati – Minnesota, @ Pittsburgh, @KC -Dallas – @Buffalo, @Miami, Detroit -Denver – @Detroit, New England, LA Chargers -Detriot – Denver, @Minnesota, @Dallas -Kansas City – @New England, Las Vegas, Cincinnati -Vegas – LA Chargers, @KC, @Indy -LA Chargers – @Las Vegas, Buffalo, @Denver -Miami – NY Jets, Dallas, @Baltimore -Minnesota – @Cincinatti, Detroit, Green Bay   WEATHER WEEKS 15-17: Good Weather Spots: *Note:  These teams have 2 of the 3 playoff weeks in either domes or warm weather locations. I have identified the following teams as warm weather locations for December and dome locations:  Arizona, Atlanta, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, LAC, LAR, Miami, Minnesota, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco. -Baltimore – @Jacksonville, @ San Francisco, Miami -Dallas – @Buffalo, @Miami, Detroit -Detroit – Denver, @Minnesota, @Dallas -Houston – @Tennessee, Cleveland, Tennessee -Indianapolis – Pittsburgh, @Atlanta, Las Vegas -Jacksonville – Baltimore, @Tampa Bay, Carolina -LA Rams – Washington, New Orleans, @NY Giants -LA Chargers –@Las Vegas, Buffalo, @Denver -Las Vegas -LA Chargers, @KC, @Indy -Miami – NY Jets, Dallas, @Baltimore -Minnesota – @Cincinatti, Detroit, Green Bay -New Orleans – NY Giants, @LA Rams, @Tampa Bay -San Francisco – @Arizona, Baltimore, @Washington -Tampa Bay – @Green Bay, Jacksonville, New Orleans   Bad Weather Spots: *Note:  These teams have 2 of the 3 playoff weeks in “bad” weather spots. We cannot predict the weather in June for late December. However, these five team locations, consistently have dicey winter weather in late December:  Buffalo, Cleveland, Chicago, Green Bay, and New England. -Buffalo – Dallas, @ LA Chargers, New England (two home games in Buffalo – awesome week 16 game environment in dome though) -Chicago – @Cleveland, Arizona, Atlanta (one in Cleveland and two games in Chicago…brrrrrr) -Cleveland – Chicago, @Houston, NY Jets (two home games in Cleveland) -New England  – KC, @Denver, @Buffalo (one home game and week 17 in Buffalo) SUMMARY: I think the key to all this information is to use it to help make decisions, but not take it as gospel. For weather, we won’t know until December what the weather will be in the cold weather locations or even the more potentially neutral locations like the northeast and midwest. Am I going to totally fade teams like Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, and New England? Absolutely not, especially offenses I am high on like Buffalo and Cleveland. But will I perhaps add an extra QB/team stack on Josh Allen, Justin Fields, and Deshaun Watson teams? I probably will on a good chunk of those stacks to give it multiple outs in playoffs. It also makes me like the running backs from those teams even more. I already loved Nick Chubb going into the season and now seeing the schedule, it makes me want even more shares of him. And will I have 100% Jared Goff stacks with 3 dome games and multiple projected shootouts in the best ball playoffs? No, but I’ll have plenty of shares of Goff stacks and the Lions overall. I already liked the Lions’ offense and wanted to stack them up and get a lot of access to them in best ball. And the same goes for other teams that are on both the “good weather” list and have multiple projected shootouts in playoffs. I will probably want more stacks and exposure to those teams like the Lions, Cowboys, Chargers, Ravens, Dolphins, and Vikings. Article produced by Megs – Use code SUMMER33 for 33% off your first month at RunPureSports OUR PARTNERSHIPS UNDERDOG – CLICK HERE – USE CODE RUNPURE YOUTUBE – Subscribe Here!