Best Ball Stock Report – August 30

This is the final Wednesday that I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. Most likely BBM4 on Underdog will be filled around Labor Day or Tuesday at the latest in my estimation. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying). The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot. I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week.   *NOTES:  -This was from ADP movement last week through Sunday. So keep that in mind for steam on players that have occurred this week. You’ll see a lot more movement during the week at this point in the draft season.    BIGGEST RISERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the TOP) Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Movement: Sam Howell QB WAS 168.38 -17.45 Deon Jackson RB IND 197.78 -14.4 Kenny Pickett QB PIT 150.71 -14.18 Juwan Johnson TE NO 154.36 -13.9 Marvin Mims WR DEN 131.48 -11.2 Luke Musgrave TE GB 165.19 -10.79 Jake Ferguson TE DAL 162.2 -9.63 Jaylen Warren RB PIT 117.23 -8.55 Brock Purdy QB SF 156.22 -8.36 Tyjae Spears RB TEN 164.14 -8 Jahan Dotson WR WAS 65.73 -7.41 Jeff Wilson RB MIA 160.46 -7.17 Romeo Doubs WR GB 108.35 -7.01 Deuce Vaughn RB DAL 184.05 -6.26 Michael Wilson WR ARI 195.74 -5.91 Jordan Love QB GB 147.89 -5.75 Darren Waller TE NYG 56.8 -5.23 Daniel Jones QB NYG 108.69 -5.03 Evan Hull RB IND 210.49 -4.93 Sam LaPorta TE DET 138.65 -4.84 BULLISH: -My guys – QB Sam Howell, QB Brock Purdy, QB Kenny Pickett, WR Jahan Dotson, TE Sam LaPorta and TE Luke Musgrave – I’ve been on these guys all draft season, I’m not jumping off just because their price has risen a bit. -Guys I’ve been drafting more the last month or two – QB Jordan Love and TE Jake Ferguson – even at rising cost, their prices are still not too high for their role/potential. -WR Marvin Mims- I was very in on Tim Patrick this draft season and not Mims early, but since Patrick’s injury I’ve taken more Mims. I continue to take more Mims shares especially after Jerry Jeudy’s recent injury. -WR Michael Wilson – Clearly the top X receiver for the Cardinals, his price isn’t too high to chase and grab shares now of Wilson. -QB Daniel Jones – He’s a QB that I want exposure to but I don’t have a lot of shares because I’ve taken more players around him. So I’m still scooping Jones shares now. -RB Jeff Wilson – The Miami RBs are the biggest winners of Jonathan Taylor not being traded. BEARISH: -RB Duece Vaughn– His stock has gone up week after week and this preseason steam is one that I cannot trust to buy at this rising cost. I think Rico Dowdle will be the backup to Tony Pollard. And yes, Vaughn will get mixed in but I don’t think he’ll be Darren Sproles in year 1. -RB Evan Hull and Deon Jackson – Maybe I’ll be wrong on this, but I strongly feel the Colts’ will bring in a veteran like Kareem Hunt or Leonard Fournette.   BIGGEST FALLERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the BOTTOM): Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Movement: Irv Smith TE CIN 174.94 5.28 Rashaad Penny RB PHI 115.68 5.82 Kareem Hunt RB null 191.39 5.98 Richie James WR KC 207.3 6.89 Michael Gallup WR DAL 145.58 7 Terry McLaurin WR WAS 53.95 7 Devin Singletary RB HOU 171.09 7.27 Donovan Peoples-Jones WR CLE 173 7.53 Zamir White RB LV 174.79 8.25 Jameson Williams WR DET 122.68 9.69 DJ Chark WR CAR 168.69 11.49 D’Onta Foreman RB CHI 185.03 11.58 Rondale Moore WR ARI 160.18 11.73 Kyler Murray QB ARI 174.93 12.15 Khalil Shakir WR BUF 213.35 12.54 Greg Dulcich TE DEN 165.04 13.89 De’Von Achane RB MIA 130.98 14.49 John Metchie WR HOU 209.12 14.5 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA 72.6 15.46 Jerry Jeudy WR DEN 55.04 17.18   BULLISH: *Not many major stances on this list. Because this list does have a lot of usage or injury concerns. Maybe CEH (super late), Leonard Fournette, or Ezekiel Elliott if they fall late enough. -Players who sustained injuries in preseason that now you can get a discount on – WR Terry McLaurin, WR JSN, WR Jerry Jeudy – just make sure the price is right. -WR Michael Gallup – I’ve been in on Gallup on draft season a 2nd season removed from the ACL injury and in a high-powered Dallas offense. I’ll certainly buy more shares at a falling price. -RB Kareem Hunt – As I mentioned above, I think he’ll land in Indy. BEARISH: -Guys I took too much of early/middle of summer and now I want to bump the breaks based on weak preseason or preseason usage concerns – TE Greg Dulcich, RB De’Vone Achane, and WR Jameson Williams -Wasn’t interested in these players, and still have no interest even at falling prices – QB Kyler Murray, WR John Metchie, RB D’Onta Foreman, RB Devin Singletary, and WR Rondale Moore – sometimes prices are falling for good reason, especially this time of year. -RB Zamir White – His price is still too high now that Josh Jacobs is officially back with

Best Ball Stock Report: August 23

Each Tuesday or Wednesday, I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying). The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot. I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week.   *NOTES:  -This was from ADP movement last week through Sunday. So keep that in mind for steam on players that have occurred this week. You’ll see a lot more movement during the week at this point in the draft season.    BIGGEST RISERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the BOTTOM) Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Dalvin Cook RB NYJ 92.34 -6.9 Jalin Hyatt WR NYG 163.94 -6.92 Michael Wilson WR ARI 201.65 -7.06 Jordan Love QB GB 153.64 -7.58 Jaylen Warren RB PIT 125.78 -7.81 James Cook RB BUF 76.52 -8.13 Jeff Wilson RB MIA 167.63 -8.85 Darren Waller TE NYG 62.03 -8.99 Sam Howell QB WAS 185.83 -9.63 Zach Ertz TE ARI 205.07 -10.46 Zamir White RB LV 166.54 -12.36 Juwan Johnson TE NO 168.26 -13.6 Raheem Mostert RB MIA 144.29 -13.78 Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI 144.69 -14.15 Khalil Herbert RB CHI 96.6 -15.7 Jake Ferguson TE DAL 171.83 -16.42 Luke Musgrave TE GB 175.98 -18.62 Tank Dell WR HOU 173.43 -19.85 Deuce Vaughn RB DAL 190.31 -22.38 Ezekiel Elliott RB 147.25 -28.14 BULLISH: -My guys – QB Sam Howell, RB Kenneth Gainwell, and TE Luke Musgrave – I’ve been on these guys all draft season, I’m not jumping off just because their price has risen a bit. -Guys I’ve been drafting more the last month or two – QB Jordan Love and TE Jake Ferguson – even at rising cost, their prices are still not too high for their role/potential. -RB Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson – Based on preseason usage, it looks like Mostert and Wilson will be the 1-2 punch at least to start the season for the Dolphins. Mostert was a hero for me last year and I like taking a discount on the Dolphins’ RBs that should get more usage. -WR Michael Wilson – Clearly the top X receiver for the Cardinals, his price isn’t too high to chase and grab shares now of Wilson. -RB James Cook – This is an RB I should have drafted more of when he was going later, but I didn’t trust that he would get a full workload. After preseason that looks to be the case. I still think he’ll be cultured for goalline touches by both Josh Allen and Damien Harris. BEARISH: -WR Jalin Hyatt – These Giants’ receivers have been on this list before and they are back on my bearish list. The Giants have about 48 slot receivers, and I’m not going to try to guess which ones make an impact this year. I’d rather draft Hodgins and Darius Slayton (going in the early 200s). Just because there are great camp reports or awesome highlight videos, does not mean that he’ll be the one ready to emerge as the 3rd or even 4th receiver in this run-heavy offense. -RB Khalil Herbert – hot take alert! I know people love Herbert, and maybe he’ll emerge as the true RB1 in that Bears’ backfield. Even though I love Herbert’s talent, what I don’t love is he’s in a crowded backfield on a weaker offense (*ducks), Justin Fields does not check it down to his RBs, and Fields will vulture goal line/potential rushing TDs. I like other RBs in that range slightly earlier a lot more like AJ Dillon and Brian Robinson. Both have a much clearer back as base down RBs with goal-line opportunities. -RB Zamir White – His price is way too high now, especially now with reports that Josh Jacobs will be back with the Raiders before the season opener.   BIGGEST FALLERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the TOP): Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Greg Dulcich TE DEN 151.15 19.36 Kendre Miller RB NO 170.17 18.55 John Metchie WR HOU 194.62 15.16 Taysom Hill TE NO 177.49 13.89 Jerome Ford RB CLE 186.81 13.28 D’Onta Foreman RB CHI 173.45 12.24 Rondale Moore WR ARI 148.45 11.66 Khalil Shakir WR BUF 200.81 11.01 Rashid Shaheed WR NO 181.62 10.32 Breece Hall RB NYJ 43.58 10.14 Treylon Burks WR TEN 96.89 9.64 Jameson Williams WR DET 112.99 9.18 Cordarrelle Patterson RB ATL 208.38 8.89 Damien Harris RB BUF 134.88 8.83 Bryce Young QB CAR 190.85 8.26 Mike Gesicki TE NE 214.48 7.36 Rashaad Penny RB PHI 109.86 7.22 C.J. Stroud QB HOU 206.34 7.21 Miles Sanders RB CAR 71.04 6.64 Parris Campbell WR NYG 193.72 6.61   BULLISH: *Not many major stances on this list. Because this list does have a lot of usage or injury concerns. Maybe CEH (super late), Leonard Fournette, or Ezekiel Elliott if they fall late enough. -RB Damien Harris – This is one guy I’ve been drafting all season on Underdog especially because I think he’ll be the Bills’ goal line RB. I’m still betting on him to be the RB2 and goal line back in Buffalo. -RB Miles Sanders – I’ve been in on Sanders all summer and I think people were scared off with the groin injury but he’s already

Best Ball Stock Report: August 16

Each Tuesday or Wednesday, I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying). The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot. I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week. Hopefully, this helps your best ball draft process this summer as ADPs evolve. *NOTES:  -Quick version this week since I’m sick, so fewer notes from me. But you can still see the movement and what spots you want to take advantage of. -This was from ADP movement last week through Sunday. So this does not account for the Zeke to Patriots or Dalvin Cook to Jets moves. There are going to be big moves on RBs Breece Hall, Rhamondre Stevenson, Elliott and Cook this week. I’m personally buying the dip when I can on Hall and Stevenson if the price is right as I still think they are the team’s RB1s.    BIGGEST RISERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the BOTTOM) Player Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Sam Howell QB WAS 195.46 -3.86 Jordan Love QB GB 161.22 -3.96 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC 144.12 -3.98 Cordarrelle Patterson RB ATL 199.49 -4.05 Michael Wilson WR ARI 208.71 -4.32 Romeo Doubs WR GB 118.58 -4.5 Khalil Herbert RB CHI 112.3 -4.75 Jayden Reed WR GB 168.33 -4.75 Raheem Mostert RB MIA 158.07 -4.78 Dalton Kincaid TE BUF 120.7 -4.78 Darius Slayton WR NYG 196.95 -5.78 Tank Bigsby RB JAX 127.12 -6.1 Marvin Mims WR DEN 145.02 -7.21 Hunter Henry TE NE 197.43 -7.58 Jalin Hyatt WR NYG 170.86 -8.1 Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI 158.84 -10.23 Jake Ferguson TE DAL 188.25 -11.74 Luke Musgrave TE GB 194.6 -13.45 Tank Dell WR HOU 193.28 -20.13 Kareem Hunt RB 184.07 -25.88 BULLISH: -My guys – QB Sam Howell, TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Darius Slayton, RB Kenneth Gainwell, and TE Luke Musgrave – I’ve been on these guys all draft season, I’m not jumping off just because their price has risen a bit. -Guys I’ve been drafting more the last month or two – QB Jordan Love, WR Jayden Reed, TE Jake Ferguson and TE Hunter Henry – even at rising cost, their prices are still not too high for their role/potential. BEARISH: -WR Jalin Hyatt – These Giants’ receivers have been on this list before and they are back on my bearish list. The Giants have about 48 slot receivers, and I’m not going to try to guess which ones make an impact this year. I’d rather draft Hodgins and Darius Slayton (going in the early 200s). Just because there are great camp reports or awesome highlight videos, does not mean that he’ll be the one ready to emerge as the 3rd or even 4th receiver in this run-heavy offense. -RB Khalil Herbert – hot take alert! I know people love Herbert, and maybe he’ll emerge as the true RB1 in that Bears’ backfield. Even though I love Herbert’s talent, what I don’t love is he’s in a crowded backfield on a weaker offense (*ducks), Justin Fields does not check it down to his RBs, and Fields will vulture goal line/potential rushing TDs. I like other RBs in that range slightly earlier a lot more like AJ Dillon and Brian Robinson. Both have a much clearer back as base down RBs with goal-line opportunities. BIGGEST FALLERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the TOP): Player Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Mike Gesicki TE NE 207.12 13.43 Tyquan Thornton WR NE 210.69 9.36 Jerome Ford RB CLE 173.53 7.94 Leonard Fournette RB 204.23 7.42 Richie James WR KC 198.32 7.15 Kendre Miller RB NO 151.62 7.07 Greg Dulcich TE DEN 131.79 6.16 Damien Harris RB BUF 126.05 5.74 C.J. Stroud QB HOU 199.13 5.53 Rashid Shaheed WR NO 171.3 5.5 John Metchie WR HOU 179.46 5.44 Trey McBride TE ARI 209.03 5.2 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB KC 206.45 4.94 Chase Brown RB CIN 206.65 4.7 Terrace Marshall WR CAR 212.29 4.63 Elijah Mitchell RB SF 131.51 4.49 Bryce Young QB CAR 182.59 4.43 Chigoziem Okonkwo TE TEN 147.19 4.42 Kyler Murray QB ARI 157.81 4.11 Ezekiel Elliott RB 175.39 3.94   BULLISH: *Not many major stances on this list. Because this list does have a lot of usage or injury concerns. Maybe CEH (super late), Leonard Fournette, or Ezekiel Elliott if they fall late enough. -RB Damien Harris – This is one guy I’ve been drafting all season on Underdog especially because I think he’ll be the Bills’ goal line RB. He got back to practice this week. And I think his sitting out with a minor injury scared people off. I’m betting on him to be the RB2 and goal line back in Buffalo. BEARISH: -QB Kyler Murray – I have been out on Murray all draft season and I still feel the same even with his price falling. He has a massive range of outcomes this season and I wonder how many games he actually plays. Even if he is on the field a lot, he’s a rushing QB recovering from a torn ACL in December, with a new HC/offense, and with one of the worst rosters in the NFL. -WR Richie James – James may be

Best Ball Stock Report: August 9

Each Tuesday or Wednesday, I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying). The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot. I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week. Hopefully, this helps your best ball draft process this summer as ADPs evolve.   BIGGEST RISERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the BOTTOM) Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Darius Slayton WR NYG 202.73 -3.39 Rashaad Penny RB PHI 102.55 -3.51 DeVante Parker WR NE 186.5 -3.9 James Cook RB BUF 88.3 -3.94 Terrace Marshall WR CAR 207.66 -3.99 Darren Waller TE NYG 73.73 -4.04 DJ Chark WR CAR 153.89 -4.15 Raheem Mostert RB MIA 162.85 -4.41 Deon Jackson RB IND 211.28 -4.46 Zay Flowers WR BAL 83.23 -4.64 Dalton Kincaid TE BUF 125.48 -5.04 Jake Ferguson TE DAL 199.99 -5.47 John Metchie WR HOU 174.02 -5.59 Chase Claypool WR CHI 204.95 -5.73 Sam LaPorta TE DET 151.91 -6.14 Hunter Henry TE NE 205.01 -6.74 Gus Edwards RB BAL 179.01 -7.71 Marvin Mims WR DEN 152.23 -13.1 Justyn Ross WR KC 182.97 -15.87 Jalin Hyatt WR NYG 178.96 -23.33   BIGGEST FALLERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the TOP): Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Tyquan Thornton WR NE 201.33 17.47 Kadarius Toney WR KC 95.14 8.9 Ty Chandler RB MIN 208.49 8.49 J.K. Dobbins RB BAL 68.71 6.75 Mike Gesicki TE NE 193.69 6.55 Juwan Johnson TE NO 184.86 6.33 Chigoziem Okonkwo TE TEN 142.77 5.39 Treylon Burks WR TEN 86.79 4.95 Trey McBride TE ARI 203.83 4.82 Kyler Murray QB ARI 153.7 4.57 Roschon Johnson RB CHI 155.52 4.12 Elijah Mitchell RB SF 127.02 3.74 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 158.77 3.65 K.J. Osborn WR MIN 149.52 3.49 Dalvin Cook RB 95.73 3.41 Rashid Shaheed WR NO 165.8 3.38 Irv Smith TE CIN 162.86 3.32 Leonard Fournette RB 196.81 3.29 Tyjae Spears RB TEN 175.46 3.08 Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI 169.07 3.07   STILL BULLISH: *These players have been on my bullish list, and remain on my bullish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below. -QB Matthew Stafford– Stafford’s price continues to drop and I continue to take more shares! -RB J.K. Dobbins – This drop is due to concerns of a holdout. I don’t think there is any injury concern and ultimately like the others, don’t think he’ll hold out. I think it’s wise to grab more shares for this uber-talented back as the price is falling. -RB Kenneth Gainwell – I’ve been bullish on him all draft season as the value RB piece of the Eagles’ backfield. He is my highest-owned RB. -WR Darius Slayton – I’ve mentioned my interest and being bullish on both Darius Slayton and Hodgins before. These are the two Giants receivers I am targeting.  Slayton is way too cheap for a deep threat and in 2-WR sets. BULLISH: -TE Hunter Henry – I mentioned below that I’m not interested in other Pats, but Henry is the one I have interest in at this price as a TE3. -TEs Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid – I gush about Sam LaPorta and his role any chance I can. And as everyone knows, I’ve been bullish on the rookie TEs all draft season because of their opportunity this season to be TE1 or in the case of Kincaid, the big slot receiver. We’re doing a 2-part on why we should believe in the rookie TEs this year on Fanspeak.com. -TE Jake Ferguson – With Luke Schoonmaker sidelined, and Ferguson looking good in camp, he looks to have a lock on the TE1 job in Dallas, which has been very fantasy friendly! -WR Marvin Mims – Ever since the Tim Patrick injury, I can’t get much Mims because he goes to high. But I recognize that I want to get some shares of the WR3 now for the Broncos and a deep threat. -RB Gus Edwards – Even though I think Dobbins is a great value, I also love Gus the Bus at this price as a 5th RB in builds.   STILL BEARISH: *These players have been on my bearish list, and remain on my bearish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below. -WR DeVante Parker – The price is still rising for Parker, and I even moreso have zero interest. -QB Kyler Murray – I have been out on Murray all draft season and I especially feel the same with his price rising. He has a massive range of outcomes this season and I wonder how many games he actually plays. Even if he is on the field a lot, he’s a rushing QB recovering from a torn ACL in December, with a new HC/offense, and with one of the worst rosters in the NFL. -WR Kadarius Toney – Even with the news that he should play in week 1, I don’t have a lot of interest in Toney in this range. -Giants’ Other WR/Slot WR – Jalin Hyatt – These Giants’ receivers have been on this list before and they are back on my bearish list. The Giants have about 48 slot receivers, and I’m not going to try to guess

Best Ball Stock Report: August 2

Each Tuesday, I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying). The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot. I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week. Hopefully, this helps your best ball draft process this summer as ADPs evolve.   BIGGEST RISERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the BOTTOM) Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC 151.28 -1.98 Alvin Kamara RB NO 92.45 -2.1 Evan Engram TE JAX 96.91 -2.14 Greg Dulcich TE DEN 128.71 -2.19 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB KC 202.33 -2.2 Gerald Everett TE LAC 148.03 -2.25 Zay Flowers WR BAL 88.34 -2.49 K.J. Osborn WR MIN 143.72 -2.52 Isaiah Hodgins WR NYG 172.91 -2.56 Tim Patrick WR DEN 167.66 -2.71 Jeff Wilson RB MIA 179.48 -2.85 Jerick McKinnon RB KC 124.05 -3.05 Mecole Hardman WR NYJ 204.63 -3.22 Kyler Murray QB ARI 149.82 -3.33 Nico Collins WR HOU 116.38 -3.34 DeVante Parker WR NE 188.13 -4.32 Tank Bigsby RB JAX 137.26 -4.41 Skyy Moore WR KC 99.34 -6.82 Leonard Fournette RB 190.34 -8.62 Zamir White RB LV 195.83 -12.6   BIGGEST FALLERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the TOP): Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Treylon Burks WR TEN 80.43 9.64 Chigoziem Okonkwo TE TEN 133.82 6.62 Kendre Miller RB NO 146.35 6.29 Pierre Strong RB NE 213.45 5.7 Mac Jones QB NE 208.67 5.37 Wan’Dale Robinson WR NYG 203.39 3.96 Dalvin Cook RB 93.55 3.69 C.J. Stroud QB HOU 193.51 3.12 Jordan Love QB GB 163.8 2.96 Chase Brown RB CIN 196.67 2.94 Bryce Young QB CAR 181.53 2.82 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 154.34 2.74 Cordarrelle Patterson RB ATL 204.25 2.56 Juwan Johnson TE NO 174.46 2.44 Brock Purdy QB SF 172.5 2.34 J.K. Dobbins RB BAL 59.37 2.24 Tyquan Thornton WR NE 177.02 2.21 Cole Kmet TE CHI 151.73 2.08 Jerome Ford RB CLE 167 2.04 Parris Campbell WR NYG 179.1 1.99   STILL BULLISH: *These players have been on my bullish list, and remain on my bullish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below. -RB Clyde Edwards-Elaire – Never thought I’d be in on CEH, but as a last RB in a zero RB type build, I don’t mind some shots. -TE Gerald Everett – Love the Chargers offense as a whole so I have a lot of their TE1 whether I grab Justin Herbert or not. -RB Jerome Ford – Should be the true RB2 in Cleveland this year. Even if it’s not the Kareem Hunt role, I don’t think it’s a pure handcuff either so this is a good price. -TE Greg Dulcich – I am very bullish on HC Sean Payton turning this offense around. Especially now with the Tim Patrick injury, I want to buy more shares of Dulcich even at the rising price. -QBs – Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, and Bryce Purdy – I’ve been in on all of these QBs so I’ll continue to be in on them as their price drops a bit. I think this is a product of the market felt their prices were getting too high. So I’m happy to grab more shares at any decreased price. -RB Kendre Miller – Just like last week, I’m more interested in Miller at this falling price. My favorite Saints’ RB is Jamaal Williams though, that has a very fair price for his role. -RB J.K. Dobbins – This drop is due to Dobbins being added to the PUP list and concerns of a holdout. I don’t think there is any injury concern and ultimately like the others, don’t think he’ll hold out. I think it’s wise to grab more shares for this uber-talented back as the price is falling. -RB Chase Brown – He’s still competing for the #2 role for the Bengals. But I don’t mind taking very late-round shots in the hopes he lands the role. -WR Isaiah Hodgins – I’ve mentioned my interest and being bullish on both Darius Slayton and Hodgins before. These are the two Giants receivers I am targeting. And Hodgins is an amazing red zone target, so especially nice on Underdog. BULLISH: -WR Mecole Hardman – I like both Hardman and Corey Davis late in drafts (200s) as weapons for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets.     STILL BEARISH: *These players have been on my bearish list, and remain on my bearish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below. -WR DeVante Parker – The price is still rising for Parker, and I even moreso have zero interest. -QB Kyler Murray – I have been out on Murray all draft season and I especially feel the same with his price rising. He has a massive range of outcomes this season and I wonder how many games he actually plays. Even if he is on the field a lot, he’s a rushing QB recovering from a torn ACL in December, with a new HC/offense, and with one of the worst rosters in the NFL. -WR Treylon Burks – I wasn’t interested in Burks before the DeAndre Hopkins signing, and I’m definitely not interested now. -RB Cordarelle Patterson – Even late in the draft, I have no interest in this

Best Ball Strategy Series: Ownership in Best Ball

In my strategy articles over the last few weeks I have discussed fades in best ball and exposure in best ball. Now let’s talk best ball ownership. This one is tricky and nuanced. We are all used to DFS ownership projections, which have gotten really accurate by the market over the years. We know the projected ownership going into the upcoming slate and we make our decisions on underweight/overweight or fade based on ownership projections and our projections for that player. That’s NOT how ownership for playoffs or Finals works in best ball. Most of the players we draft will be 100% owned or close to it during the season. So the players that are high owned or “chalky” in the best ball playoffs (playoff advance rate) are simply the players that outperformed their ADP and outperformed players at that position drafted around them. Example, if Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill and Austin Ekeler are the highest scoring fantasy players from round 1, they’ll have a very high advance rate to best ball playoffs. That’s ok, chalk in best ball just means you were right or correct to draft them. The players that are low-owned in the playoffs are guys that were either injured for part of the season or underperformed their ADP or players drafted around them. The same goes for Finals and advance rate through best ball playoffs. If Justin Jefferson was high-owned in the playoffs but lays an egg Weeks 15 and 16, he’s probably going to be relatively low-owned in the Finals. Why? Because it’s all based on performance and if he has a bad quarter and semi-finals then he likely killed off most of his playoff teams as the team’s first-round (likely first overall pick). The bottom line, you cannot project playoff ownership and Finals ownership. No one at this point is chalky or low-owned (a few exceptions below). It’s impossible to project because we don’t have the Delorean or a time machine to tell us the future. I say this because I see people reference chalk a lot in best ball, and we don’t know what chalk will actually be in the best ball playoffs and Finals. So how do we get low-owned players through to the best ball playoffs and more importantly the best ball Finals? There’s no true way to build for that without being careless, but there are some ideas to consider below.   OWNERSHIP NUANCES: -Undrafted Players: Don’t go overboard with this. But there are some players that’s % drafted will be lower than others. Because they are not close to 100% owned, they may be lower owned in playoffs depending on their season performance. Note, if they have a spike week in weeks 15 or 16 in playoffs they will then have a high advance rate to Finals. Again, don’t draft a lot of these players or then you’ll likely have too many dead roster spots (which I wrote about here). Too many dead roster spots will crush your chances to even make playoffs. So I would just take a couple of late round shots. Some of my favorites are WR Josh Reynolds and Mack Hollins and TE Cole Turner. But find your favorite late-round fliers that go undrafted a lot and just mix in one or two in a draft. -Unique Combos: If you draft from certain spots of the draft, you’ll notice it is easy to get a particular stack or players drafted with that player. For instance, if you have the #1 pick and pick Justin Jefferson, you likely can get Tee Higgins and maybe even DeVonta Smith at the 2/3 turn. Jefferson/Higgins is going to be a popular combo. Those will likely be paired with Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins or both. There’s nothing wrong with that, just know if all those guys do well this season, that combination will be high owned. I have plenty of those combos and stacks when I draft Justin Jefferson. But maybe diversify some builds and take a hero/elite QB and a RB at the 2/3 turn. That will be a more unique combo. Or especially Jefferson and two RBs will be very unique I’m guessing. Again, you don’t have to overdo this strategy but its something you can mix in. -Pushing Through Low-Owned Players in Playoffs: One strategy I’ve been leaning on more is sometimes (again not all the time) with elite QBs or TEs, I’ll still stack 2 other QBs or TEs. I’ve talked about reasons why I like having 3 stacks. Example:  Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have a poor week 15 and 16 (unlikely I know). If you have two stacks, perhaps you can push a low-owned Mahomes/Kelce lineup through to playoffs. Then if they pop off for a big game week 17, you have massive leverage on the field. Again, you can’t plan or predict it. But you can build for it. Another strategy is if you’re high on a team, I like stacking the team at different positions – QB/RB/WR/TE. Especially if you can get those positions at various positions throughout the draft and spread out your draft capital. The QB/RB can ping pong its team through the season, meaning some weeks the QB may anchor the team, and some weeks the RB may anchor the team. But in playoffs, they can also help ping pong (again if you have other stacks built out). Example:  A team with Josh Allen, Damien Harris, Gabe Davis and Dalton Kincaid. Allen and the passing game really struggles week 15, but Harris scores 2 TDs and has a massive game. He may help push the Allen stack through. Or vice versa. Last year on my BBM3 Finals team, I had a Dallas stack with Dak Prescott, Zeke Elliott, Michael Gallup, and Dalton Schultz. Since Schultz was injured for part of the year, he was lower owned in playoffs and only 4% owned in the Finals. He scored 2 TDs in week 17! Imagine if my receivers didn’t absolutely

Best Ball Stock Report – July 25

Each Tuesday, I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying). The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot. I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week. Hopefully, this helps your best ball draft process this summer as ADPs evolve.   BIGGEST RISERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the TOP) Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Zamir White RB LV 195.83 -12.6 Leonard Fournette RB 190.34 -8.62 Skyy Moore WR KC 99.34 -6.82 Tank Bigsby RB JAX 137.26 -4.41 DeVante Parker WR NE 188.13 -4.32 Nico Collins WR HOU 116.38 -3.34 Kyler Murray QB ARI 149.82 -3.33 Mecole Hardman WR NYJ 204.63 -3.22 Jerick McKinnon RB KC 124.05 -3.05 Jeff Wilson RB MIA 179.48 -2.85 Tim Patrick WR DEN 167.66 -2.71 Isaiah Hodgins WR NYG 172.91 -2.56 K.J. Osborn WR MIN 143.72 -2.52 Zay Flowers WR BAL 88.34 -2.49 Gerald Everett TE LAC 148.03 -2.25 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB KC 202.33 -2.2 Greg Dulcich TE DEN 128.71 -2.19 Evan Engram TE JAX 96.91 -2.14 Alvin Kamara RB NO 92.45 -2.1 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC 151.28 -1.98   BIGGEST FALLERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the BOTTOM): Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Romeo Doubs WR GB 121.47 1.97 Parris Campbell WR NYG 179.1 1.99 Jerome Ford RB CLE 167 2.04 Cole Kmet TE CHI 151.73 2.08 Tyquan Thornton WR NE 177.02 2.21 J.K. Dobbins RB BAL 59.37 2.24 Brock Purdy QB SF 172.5 2.34 Juwan Johnson TE NO 174.46 2.44 Cordarrelle Patterson RB ATL 204.25 2.56 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 154.34 2.74 Bryce Young QB CAR 181.53 2.82 Chase Brown RB CIN 196.67 2.94 Jordan Love QB GB 163.8 2.96 C.J. Stroud QB HOU 193.51 3.12 Dalvin Cook RB 93.55 3.69 Wan’Dale Robinson WR NYG 203.39 3.96 Mac Jones QB NE 208.67 5.37 Pierre Strong RB NE 213.45 5.7 Kendre Miller RB NO 146.35 6.29 Chigoziem Okonkwo TE TEN 133.82 6.62 Treylon Burks WR TEN 80.43 9.64   STILL BULLISH: *These players have been on my bullish list, and remain on my bullish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below. -WR Tim Patrick – His price continues to skyrocket, but the 170s is not too high for me yet. I think if he continues to show his recovery is going well, his price will rise more each month. I have a lot of Patrick shares already because I’m bullish on a Sean Payton-led Broncos offense and this is cheap exposure to that. -RB Clyde Edwards-Elaire – Never thought I’d be in on CEH, but as a last RB in a zero RB type build, I don’t mind some shots. -TE Gerald Everett – Love the Chargers offense as a whole so I have a lot of their TE1 whether I grab Justin Herbert or not. -RB Jerome Ford – Should be the true RB2 in Cleveland this year. Even if it’s not the Kareem Hunt role, I don’t think it’s a pure handcuff either so this is a good price. -TE Greg Dulcich and RB Javonte Williams – I am very bullish on HC Sean Payton turning this offense around. That means a huge benefit for Tim Patrick, Greg Dulchich, and Javonte Williams (when 100%). I still think these guys could vastly outperform these ADPs. BULLISH: -RB Kendre Miller – Miller just passed his physical and was moved to the active roster. His price has been really falling so I’m more interested now at this price. -QBs – Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, and Bryce Purdy – I’ve been in on all of these QBs so I’ll be continue to be in on them as their price drops a bit. I think this is a product of the market felt their prices were getting to high. So I’m happy to grab more shares at any decreased price. -RB J.K. Dobbins – This drop is due to Dobbins being added to the PUP list. I don’t think there is any injury concern and think he’ll be fine for this season. I think it’s wise to grab more shares to this uber-talented back as the price is falling. -RB Chase Brown – He’s still competing for the #2 role for the Bengals. But I don’t mind taking very late-round shots in the hopes he lands the role. -WR Isaiah Hodgins – I’ve mentioned my interest and being bullish on both Darius Slayton and Hodgins before. These are the two Giants receivers I am targeting. And Hodgins is an amazing red zone target, so especially nice on Underdog.     STILL BEARISH: *These players have been on my bearish list, and remain on my bearish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below. -WR DeVante Parker – The price is still rising for Parker, and I even moreso have zero interest. -QB Kyler Murray – I have been out on Murray all draft season and I especially feel the same with his price rising. He has a massive range of outcomes this season and I wonder how many games he actually plays. Even if he is on the field a lot, he’s a rushing QB recovering from a torn ACL in December, with a

Best Ball Strategy Series: Exposures

In my strategy article last week, I discussed fading in best ball. Yes, I talk about the importance of diversifying your portfolio for both players and strategies/lineup constructions. I don’t want all the exact same builds and few player stacks. But just like in DFS, in best ball we can’t play everyone. So we need to make fades/go underweight on players that we don’t think will outperform their ADP. On the contrast, for players that we think will outperform their ADP, we want to go overweight and have a high exposure to those players. If you feel a player could massively outperform their ADP, then go massively overweight on that player. The name of the game in best ball is to be right more often on your player stands (overweight/underweight/fade) in regards to how that player finishes vs. their ADP. Obviously, best ball is a lot more nuanced than just that. But if you’re successful more often on your player stands, it will lead to a profitable and fun best ball season.   EXPOSURE NUANCES: -It’s easier to get higher exposure to mid and late-round players. This is because these players will fall to you naturally more often. So if you look at your top exposed players and they are QB2-3s and later round RBs/WRs/TEs, don’t worry, that is normal. -If you want to make a bigger stand on the earlier round player, first if it’s a player you project to rise (say 4th round to 2nd round), then scoop as many shares as possible at their discounted price. Then you may need to reach on 1st and 2nd round players if you want very high exposure to them. Example:  You want as much Cooper Kupp as possible. Kupp currently goes 3rd-5th in most drafts. If you wanted to go overweight, then you would take Kupp a lot even when you get the 1st or 2nd pick too. That means you’re lowering your exposure to Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. But if Kupp is the top receiver you need both in the regular season and playoffs to win it all, then that doesn’t sound so crazy. -Just make sure you have good reasoning for all your heavy-weight early exposures. Ultimately, it’s these first few round players that will determine your success in best ball. So yes, high exposures are a risk. And it really depends on your risk tolerance. But if you’re right about your high exposures, it can pay off big time. -Remember if your personal ranking is higher on a player, it’s fine to take them above ADP. They just have to outperform the position you took them at. Example:  I am high on QB Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense. I am fine taking Goff well above his ADP, because I believe he’ll finish as a top 10 QB and have a strong best ball playoffs. If I’m right, then going overweight on Goff will be the right call. -Check your exposures weekly to make sure you don’t want to make adjustments moving forward. Maybe you want to back off a player’s exposure or maybe you realize you want a lot more shares. Checking in weekly will help you stay on top to make sure in the end you get the exposures you are happy with for this season.   SUMMARY: Remember, no one can tell you you’re right or wrong on your player exposures going into the season. Because we won’t know until the end of week 17 on which players we truly wanted to be overweight or be underweight or fade. So have a process and always check in with your exposures each week to see if you want to make adjustments to your exposures. Article produced by Megs – Use code SUMMER33 for 33% off your first month at RunPureSports OUR PARTNERSHIPS UNDERDOG – CLICK HERE – USE CODE RUNPURE YOUTUBE – Subscribe Here!    

Best Ball Stock Report: July 18

Each Tuesday, I will analyze the Underdog Fantasy ADP Report which shows the biggest risers and fallers from the last week. I’m highlighting the 20 biggest risers and 20 biggest fallers in ADP this past week. Then I will list the players I am most bullish (continuing to buy) and bearish (not buying). The Bullish and Bearish players listed could be from both the biggest risers and biggest fallers of the week on Underdog. For Risers, you could look at it two ways. Either the price is now too steep and I’m going to hold off buying more or I’m going to get more shares because I think the price will go up further throughout best ball season. For Fallers, the same applies that you may think they’ll continue to fall so you’ll wait, or you may think this is a good buy spot. I’m not going to make a position on every player in risers and fallers list. But I’ll make a position on the players that I have the strongest stance on this week. Hopefully, this helps your best ball draft process this summer as ADPs evolve.   BIGGEST RISERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the TOP) Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: Kyler Murray QB ARI 153.15 -9.25 Alvin Kamara RB NO 94.55 -7.39 Nico Collins WR HOU 119.72 -6.23 Tim Patrick WR DEN 170.37 -6.19 Skyy Moore WR KC 106.16 -5.3 Jeff Wilson RB MIA 182.33 -3.69 DeVante Parker WR NE 192.45 -3.52 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB KC 204.53 -3.46 Gerald Everett TE LAC 150.28 -3.22 K.J. Osborn WR MIN 146.24 -3.19 Diontae Johnson WR PIT 55.88 -3 Javonte Williams RB DEN 90.32 -2.43 Zamir White RB LV 208.43 -2.38 Rashaad Penny RB PHI 110.47 -2.31 Gabe Davis WR BUF 75.71 -2.06 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC 153.26 -2.03 Trey McBride TE ARI 199.49 -2 Greg Dulcich TE DEN 130.9 -1.96 Marvin Mims WR DEN 159.36 -1.88 Cordarrelle Patterson RB ATL 201.69 -1.73   BIGGEST FALLERS: (Biggest ADP change starting from the BOTTOM): Name: Pos: Team: Current ADP: ADP Change: C.J. Stroud QB HOU 190.39 2.09 Derek Carr QB NO 148.05 2.11 Irv Smith TE CIN 155.81 2.12 Gus Edwards RB BAL 186.9 2.13 Samaje Perine RB DEN 105.52 2.22 Dalvin Cook RB 89.86 2.35 Kendre Miller RB NO 140.06 2.7 Bryce Young QB CAR 178.71 2.75 Mike Gesicki TE NE 186.15 2.8 Anthony Richardson QB IND 103.4 2.83 Chase Brown RB CIN 193.73 3.03 Treylon Burks WR TEN 70.79 3.16 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR NE 117.2 3.27 Jerome Ford RB CLE 164.96 3.49 Tyquan Thornton WR NE 174.81 3.51 Luke Musgrave TE GB 205.27 3.77 Mac Jones QB NE 203.3 4.04 Isiah Pacheco RB KC 86.56 4.23 Pierre Strong RB NE 207.75 5.1 Jordan Love QB GB 160.84 6.15   STILL BULLISH: *These players have been on my bullish list, and remain on my bullish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below. -WR Tim Patrick – His price continues to skyrocket, but the 170s is not too high for me yet. I think if he continues to show his recovery is going well, his price will rise more each month. I have a lot of Patrick shares already because I’m bullish on a Sean Payton-led Broncos offense and this is cheap exposure to that.   BULLISH: -Most of the Broncos (TE Greg Dulchich and RB Javonte Williams) – Like the Rams last week, the Broncos are rising, and for good reason. They should be in shootouts against their foes in the AFC West and AFC East. I am very bullish on HC Sean Payton turning this offense around. That means a huge benefit for Tim Patrick, Greg Dulchich, and Javonte Williams (when 100%). I still think these guys could vastly outperform these ADPs. -RB Clyde Edwards-Elaire – Never thought I’d be in on CEH, but as a last RB in a zero RB type build, I don’t mind some shots. -RB Rashaad Penny – Swift is too rich for me, so I’ve been invested in Penny and Gainwell for the Eagles. -TE Gerald Everett – Love the Chargers offense as a whole so I have a lot of their TE1 whether I grab Justin Herbert or not. -TE Irv Smith – If Big Irv’s pice is starting to fall, I am very interested. -RB Gus Edwards – Not sure why his price is falling, but I have high exposure to Edwards as RB2 in Baltimore that still gets worked in and is very efficient. I’ll take more shares with the price dropping. -RB Jerome Ford – Should be the true RB2 in Cleveland this year. Even if its not the Kareem Hunt role, I don’t think its a pure handcuff either so this is a good price. -TE Luke Musgrave – I have been very bullish on Musgrave most of best ball season. He was rising for awhile but I’ll happily take more shares if he’s falling.     STILL BEARISH: *These players have been on my bearish list, and remain on my bearish list despite their price change (rise or fall) for the reasons below. -WR DeVante Parker – The rise for Parker is obviously due to the new contract, but it is an incentive-based contract and I like other receivers around him more. -QB Kyler Murray – I have been out on Murray all draft season and I especially feel the same with his price rising. He has a massive range of outcomes this season and I wonder how many games he actually plays. Even if he is on the field a lot, he’s a rushing QB recovering from a torn ACL in December, with a new HC/offense, and with one of the worst rosters in the NFL. BEARISH: -RB Alvin Kamara – I still think Kamara will have some suspension, was not impressed with his play last year and now he’s in a 3-man backfield. -WR Marvin Mims – If I’m bullish on Tim Patrick, it makes sense I’m bearish on Marvin Mims. The lone Broncos player I’m not in