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AP’S NBA BETS BLOG 12/28 – 12/29

This season I’ll be posting my NBA Bets write up in a Blog type of format. When a play gets added I’ll send an alert in discord. I just want to be able to provide some context to my posted plays – this format will allow me to get plays up fast so we can get in before big line movements.

20’21’ RECORD: 11-2, +9.78 Units

JAZZ VS THUNDER, OKC +8, 1 UNIT – Winner 

These Books are undervaluing a very scrappy OKC team led by the likes of Darius Bazley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & a few veterans in Al Horford & George Hill. This teams defense is going to keep them in games. If you remember back during bubble play, Lu Dort was all over James Harden in their season. Shai, Hill, Bazley & Horford are all strong defenders as well. Sure, Jazz are the better team on paper but 8 points is far too much. POSTED 12/28 8:34EST

BUCKS VS HEAT OVER 222.5, 1 UNIT 

Jimmy Butler is doubtful which means MIA will be down one of their best defenders & we’ll see more minutes from Goran Tragic & Tyler Hero who are comfortable with pushing the pace & can score buckets fast. POSTED 12/29 6:14amEST

MAGIC VS THUNDER UNDER 219.5, 1 UNIT 

This OKC appears to be a very solid defensive team & they have arguably been scoring at a rate a bit higher than expectation, which has benefited us nicely. This total is just a bit too high; correct number should be a least a few points lower giving us some nice value here. POSTED 12/29 6:14amEST

WOLVES VS CLIPPERS, CLIPS -8.5, 1 UNIT 

Perfect bounce back spot for LAC against a KAT-less Wolves team that looked absolutely lost against LAL. The one risk here is Kawhi Leonard is still questionable. I think they can get it done without him but assuming he plays, I see this line moving in LACs favor quite a bit. POSTED 12/29 8am EST

BULLS VS WIZARDS, OVER 233, 1 UNIT  

Jumped on this one early & sent an alert in discord. If you have the number at 235, I like it for a half unit. True line should be in the 237 range. Pace is going to be incredible in this game. POSTED 12/29 10am EST. 

PELICANS VS SUNS, UNDER 223, 1 UNIT 

Two years ago we would be hammering the over with all the money we have but these teams are way different this season. Both squads look much improved on the defensive end & aren’t always wanting to push the pace. I think we get some value here at 233. POSTED 12/29 10AMEST

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