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AP’S NBA BETS BLOG 12/23 – 12/25

This season I’ll be posting my NBA Bets write up in a Blog type of format. When a play gets added I’ll send an alert in discord. I just want to be able to provide some context to my posted plays – this format will allow me to get plays up fast so we can get in before big line movements.

20’21’ RECORD: 0-0

PELICANS / RAPTORS (12/23) UNDER 230 – 1 UNIT 

Play added 9EST 12/23. Van Gundy takes over duties this season as the Pelicans head coach. Van Gundy has historically been a huge fan of slowing things down & really wants his guys to emphasize play on the defensive end of the ball. Gundy also looks to start a true center & rim protector in Steven Adams. This combo is going to be much different than what we saw last season from the PELS. My plan here is to look for over inflated numbers based on play style we saw last year from the Pels. On the Raptors side it makes for an even tastier unders bet with Aron Baynes starting at center. Additionally, Pascal Siakam couldn’t hit a shot to save his life during bubble play – things didn’t look much better in the preseason. Let’s hop on this one early crew.

BUCKS / WARRIORS XMAS DAY (12/25) – BUCKS -7.5, 1 UNIT 

Play added 9EST 12/23. I’m not sure what the Books are doing but this line hasn’t been touched even after the disastrous showing of the Warriors on opening night. I saw nothing new or good from that Warriors squad as they got pummeled by KD, Kyrie & the NETS. Giannis Antetokounmpo will get whatever he wants in the paint & I can’t see any way the Warriors keep this one competitive. Looks like it could be another long season for DUBS fans this year.

NETS / CELTICS XMAS DAY (12/25) – NETS -2, 1 UNIT 

Play added at 3EST 12/23. Brooklyn took care of business with ease against a Warriors team that looked really bad. I think this Nets team might easily be the deepest team offensively in the league. Kyrie Irving & Kevin Durant are perfectly complimented by Caris LeVert & Spencer Dinwiddie. It doesn’t matter what group is on the court; this is what will make them tough to beat all season. Celtics will come into this game down a star in Kemba Walker. In my opinion, this spread is off and will for sure move in favor of Brooklyn. 

Update 8:20EST 12/23. Adding a unit. Feeling very confident about this play. 

PELICANS / HEAT XMAS DAY (12/25) – UNDER 227.5, 1 UNIT 

Despite decent shooting from the field, we saw the Pelicans/Raptors game easily fall under the total. I’m not sold on this Pelicans defense just yet but you know its something Stan Van Gundy is going to keep emphasizing. Correct line feels like 223-225 range and I feel like we are picking up some decent value by hoping on the under once again. 

Update: 7:20EST 12/24

CLIPPERS / NUGGETS XMAS DAY (12/25) – CLIPPERS -1, 1 UNIT 

Nuggets definitely struggled on the defensive end of the court & somehow allowed the Kings to get the win. While the Clippers came out focused & appear to be playing with a chip on their shoulder with a dominating performance over the Lakers on opening night. Clippers should have all the motivation in the world coming into this contest after losing to this Nuggets squad in the playoffs. Unless Jamal Murray can catch fire again, I don’t see how Denver stays in this one. 

Update: 12:47EST 12/24

MAVERICKS / LAKERS XMAS DAY (12/25) – UNDER 227.5, 1 UNIT 

Kicking myself for not getting this at the 229 number but I still love the play. Mavericks had no interest in pushing the pace against the Suns & the Lakers looked sloppy on offense against LAC. We saw these two teams battle it out many times in lower scoring affairs last season. If we can avoid some Luka/Bron XMAS day magic, we should get the W at this number. 

Update: 1:17EST 12/24

<MORE TO COME – BLOG STYLE FORMAT THROUGH XMAS DAY>

 

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