AP’S NBA BETS BLOG 1/4 – 1/8
This season I’ll be posting my NBA Bets write up in a Blog type of format. When a play gets added I’ll send an alert in discord. I just want to be able to provide some context to my posted plays – this format will allow me to get plays up fast so we can get in before big line movements.
20’21’ RECORD: 31-14, +17.4 Units
Knicks/Hawks UNDER 223.5- W
Celtics/Raptors OVER 215- W
Hornets/76ers UNDER 219.5- W
Pacers/Pelicans UNDER 219- L
Jan 5th Plays
NETS +4.5, 1 UNIT & JAZZ/NETS OVER 226, 1 UNIT – W / P
Brooklyn is running at the 4th fastest pace in the league & I don’t see this changing even with Kevin Durant missing this game. Pre KD news, the Nets were opening as 3 point favorites at home against the Jazz. Since KD was ruled out, we have seen a 7.5 point swing (wouldn’t be surprised if it moved further) in favor of the Jazz. The key here for me is Brooklyn still has two key playmakers in Kyrie Irving & Caris LeVert who will be on the court at all times during this game. This is also a spot where Utah could easily come in overlooking this team now that they are without Spencer Dinwiddie & Kevin Durant. I’m just not buying it at all & I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Nets get the W here with everyone doubting them.
WOLVES VS NUGGETS – UNDER 227, 1 UNIT – L
We got bailed out by good shooting from Malik Beasley & Jamal Murray on Sunday that helped us hit the over in this game. However, Minnesota is running at an above average pace while the Nuggets are towards the bottom in pace (possessions per game). If these teams come out shooting a combined 50% from the field (Again), then we’ll probably take our loss and move on. However, I’m betting we see better defensive efficiency & that we’ll see the total fall a few points under this number.
Jan 6th Plays
WARRIORS +5, 1 UNIT – L
Clippers are on the 2nd half of a back-2-back where Paul George was the guy who sat last night. In these situations in the past, Kawhi Leonard has been the guy to rest on one side of the b2b. Working under the assumption that it is highly possible that Kawhi could rest tonight, I think +5 against a ripe hot Warriors team is a very nice number to hop on early. If Kawhi does end up playing, its a much riskier play but you have to like how GSW is looking with Draymond Green back in this lineup.
PISTONS VS BUCKS – OVER 227, 1 UNIT – W
Bucks are once again among the league leaders in pace AND offensive efficiency. Any time a Bucks total falls under that 230 mark, I’ll always have some interest in the over, they just play at such an insanely fast pace. Blake Griffin & Derrick Rose appear to be in but Josh Jackson is questionable. Hopefully Jackson ends up playing, that would be a moderate scoring boost for the Pistons.
BULLS VS KINGS – OVER 229.5, 1 UNIT – W
Bulls are on a b2b but these two teams play at an extremely fast pace & lack defensive efficiency. I’ll always play the over in a situation here at a number under 230.
CLIPPERS VS WARRIORS – OVER 230, 1 UNIT – L
Paul George sat last night, while Kawhi Leonard played. We got on the Warriors at +5 last night, with the assumption that Kawhi would likely sit today. Paul George is still technically questionable but he played massive minutes in the game before yesterday. To me, this clearly looks like a rest spot and I think PG plays tonight. Great value in getting on the over as it has come down off its highs, given the uncertainty.
HORNETS VS HAWKS – HAWKS -6, 1 UNIT – L
This Hawks team is loaded with shooters & this is a prime bounce back spot after a tough unexpected loss to the Knicks. Knicks actually play very hard on the defensive end of the court, you have to think ATL overlooked them for sure. I think the Hawks win big tonight.
Jan 7th Plays
Wolves vs Blazers – OVER 232.5, 1 UNIT – W
Jan 8th Plays
SUNS VS PISTONS – UNDER 217.5, 1 UNIT
This spread is a bit high as the Pistons come in overvalued from a pace standpoint coming off multiple games against fast paced teams (mainly the Bucks). Suns have been excellent defensively. This has the makings of a sloppy game.
THUNDER VS KNICKS – KNICKS -2.5, 1 UNIT
This Knicks team continues to get zero respect despite some MASSIVE wins over good teams. I’ll continue to ride with them as Thibs keeps it simple by just playing his best players big minutes.
MAGIC VS ROCKETS – ROCKETS -5.5, 1 UNIT
Magic come into this one very thin as Markelle Fultz is done for the season. We posted this bet late last night but today Aaron Gordon just got ruled out as well. Feeling very good about this side.
JAZZ VS BUCKS – OVER 230.5, 1 UNIT
Bucks are running at an extremely fast pace and own one of the highest offensive efficiency rates in the league. They are an over machine and I will almost auto fire at anything 230 or under no matter who they are playing (except maybe the Suns).
RAPTORS VS KINGS – RAPTORS -5, 1 UNIT
Toronto isn’t going to continue to lose games. This team has too much talent and is well coached. They showed a lot of positive signs last game. . . I really think they come in and stomp the Kings tonight and then go on a nice run moving forward. Great time to hop on Raptor sides.