This season I’ll be posting my NBA Bets write up in a Blog type of format. When a play gets added I’ll send an alert in discord. I just want to be able to provide some context to my posted plays – this format will allow me to get plays up fast so we can get in before big line movements.
YTD: 48-37, +7.8
I’m overall pleased with the process & results thus far in the NBA season. There are a few spots I definitely would like to clean up. For example, I added the Wolves ML & Side late in the day after I was already very confident in the OVERS, when I posted it earlier in the day. This cost me 2 units & could have been avoided. One thing I am very pleased with is getting in early and being on the right side of line movements. Per a quick review of my record & posted plays, I’ve been on the right side of line movements right around 80% of the time. However, being on the right side of line movements doesn’t guarantee anything, but it is nice knowing we are going to be in a plus expected value (+EV) situation the majority of the time.
I absolutely love this slate; I’ve had my eye on it since Monday. . . Hopefully that is a good thing. Let’s get to the winners.
BUCKS VS RAPTORS – OVER 223.5, 1 UNIT
Both teams prefer to push in transition to create quick offensive buckets; this is what leads to a fast-paced game that is JUICY for overs. At this number, I feel very good about the Overs side here. The one risk is the Bucks are one team that is good defensively in transition. Betting wise, I like this number up to 225.
NETS VS HAWKS – OVER 235.5, 1 UNIT
Have you seen this Nets team on defense yet? Sure, this is a big number, and the Hawks are on a B2B. However, you have to respect this connection that Trae Young and Clint Capela have going on right now. I expect a ton of uncontested buckets in the paint for the Hawks and the Nets have all the firepower in the world to easily hit this over. If the Hawks weren’t on a B2B, I would have this as a 2 unit play.
KINGS VS MAGIC – MAGIC -1.5, 1 UNIT
Kings are getting a bit too much respect here in my opinion. They are just 1-4 on the road but my issue with them is how they matchup with the Magic. Unless they give Whiteside some decent run tonight, I think Nikola Vucevic is going to get whatever he wants. The other thing to note is the ball is in Evan Fournier’s hands FAR more often right now. Just look at his performance on the DFS side of things; the guy has been producing. I’ve seen far greater offensive efficiency from them & it takes pressure off their young rookie Cole Anthony.
WOLVES VS WARRIORS – OVER 227.5, 1 UNIT
We fired an Over bet here on Monday that cashed easily despite 40% shooting on the Wolves side. The pace here was incredible & if we can finally get a normal shooting day from the Wolves, this number will be absolutely crushed. Another note, MIN had no answer for Chef Curry & Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins looked far more motivated to score buckets going against his former squad.
THUNDER VS SUNS – UNDER 220.5, 1 UNIT
Both teams are coming off a multiple game stretch where they played fast paced teams. With recency bias always being a popular thing factored into price & lines, I feel this number is inflated. Chris Paul isn’t one to push the pace, he prefers to manage things strategically on offense & focus on playing sound defense. OKC could get a few pieces back in Al Horford and George Hill. This doesn’t benefit the over side at all. Horford’s shot has been terrible & Hill is a guy who would much prefer to slow things down.
MAVERICKS VS JAZZ – MAVS +4, 1 UNIT
Luka Doncic won’t be shorthanded tonight as the Mavs expect to get Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Dwight Powell back. I’ll take an almost fully healthy Mavs team with the points over the Jazz who are playing on a B2B. Utah looked bad in the first half against the Knicks as well. If they have one bad half against Luka Doncic right now, they stand zero chance in this game. I think the Mavs come away with the W but I’ll gladly lock in the points here.
