Contrarian Conference Championship Build

What’s happening RPS! It’s Conference Championship week and it’s time to start thinking football. This is one of the best times of the year, sweating golf tournaments all day, NBA at night, and getting ready for playoff football on the weekends. For DFS, a 2 game slate means ridiculous ownership and very chalky spots. This is exactly the type of slate where taking stands is crucial. Let’s find those contrarian plays.

Now, a little about me and this article. I’m a single entry DFS player who enjoys building and rooting for my one team that I spent hours to construct. The difference between myself and other single entry players, is that I prefer to build in a very contrarian way. You’ll rarely see a Patrick Mahomes captain when you see Tabor5 at the top of a showdown leaderboard and that’s what this article will do for you. I try to focus on the not so popular builds and players that give us the edge we need to take down some big time cash! Let’s take a look at today’s game.

Notes: Following Vegas and these lines can be important to your builds. Game flow, outcomes, and the line changes can all make a difference. We have two games this week to dive into and there’s a few things sticking out to me. I do think the 49ers win this game, but 7.5 points is a lot against a really fricken good Lions team. The 49ers also struggled last week against a far less superior Packers team. The total is a good one at 51.5, so we can expect a lot of points scored here and I think we have a really close game that either team can win. The line for Chiefs/ Ravens feels right to me so I’m not touching it, but I do think Over 44 is a lock. These are good defenses, but it’s the AFC Championship game, with 2 elite quarterbacks. These totals will lead to heavier ownership on the night game, so naturally a way to be different is to stack one of these AFC offenses.

Notable Injuries:

Deebo Samuel-** Shanahan announced he will play so you can ignore this*** We watched the glass man leave last weeks game after one drive. It really hurt having Deebo for 50+ yards on a parlay that would have hit, after watching him rack up 25 yards like 3 plays into the game. It’s a shoulder injury, and reports show that it’s nothing serious “shoulder discomfort”. He was limited in practice, but the fact that he’s practicing and it’s the NFC Championship has me thinking he plays. I’d be stunned at this point if he didn’t, so I’m planning accordingly.

Isiah Pacheco- We are dealing with two Injuries that can certainly be nagging. It’s the toe and ankle for Pacheco and he’s yet to practice this week. I think he ends up playing, but that’s really just an opinion. If he doesn’t then Clyde Edwards -Helaire becomes a lock play. I will note that I’m probably fading Pacheco either way here. A really good defense and two injuries that could be easily aggravated sounds like an easy fade for me.

Kalif Raymond- Still hasn’t practiced so looks unlikely to suit up again.

Mark Andrews- The Ravens activated him off IR and have their weapon back for the biggest game of the season. He’s been a full practice participant since last Wednesday so I don’t expect him to be limited. This obviously would hurt Isaiah Likely.

 

Approach

I’m very big on numbers and matchups, this is why I excel at baseball above anything else with DFS. There’s actually a ton of ways to get different this week that support the things I look for and I love it. I shared my feelings on the Vegas lines and what I expect in these games. A close shootout in both games meaning that I can care less what defense I land on here. It’s a crapshoot as to which of these defenses gets us a touchdown, so I’m not prioritizing anyone. As for the rest of my build, I’m plugging in a couple of my smash plays at RB, WR, TE then letting my quarterback fit into my lineup as well. I’ll rank the QBs below, but I think they are fair priced and I think all 4 of them will show out this weekend. If I had to fade one it’s certainly Goff. So let’s dive into my smash plays.

 

Contrarian Smash Plays

Deebo Samuel- This is a great contrarian play. Last weeks debacle will certainly make people question clicking his name and I love attacking those trends. The Lions secondary gives up a ton of explosive plays, and when you think of explosive plays in the 49ers passing attack it has to be Deebo. The Lions play an above average rate of man coverage, which typically benefits Aiyuk, but we are still looking at well above 70% zone schemes where Deebo excels, and the Lions were the 4th worst defense at allowing explosive plays in zone coverage. This is an absolute smash spot for Deebo and I love stacking him, CMC, and Purdy to start my build. I expect the field to take the savings on Aiyuk and Kittle this week and I’ll gladly go this route instead.

Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman- I expect a close game and offense here, I don’t like Pacheco with these injuries and I don’t LOVE Kelce in this matchup. The Ravens run a lot of man coverage and they have two extremely talented linebackers in coverage with Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen to mark Kelce. Rashee Rice sees a 27% target rate against man coverage and Justin Watson surprisingly sees almost 20%. They are Mahomes preferred options in man heavy schemes and I want to attack here. Watson is a great value at $3,300 and I’d even consider Mecole Hardman at $3,000. At least one of these guys will be in my lineup.

Sam LaPorta- I’m being very picky at tight end this week. LaPorta and Mark Andrews are the only two I’m considering. I mentioned above how I don’t like Travis Kelce in this matchup and the lack of zone scheme, mixed with the return of Deebo has me less than thrilled to play a blocking tight end like George Kittle. Give me the guy who’s most likely to see a trailing script and who saw 9 catches on 11 targets last week.

 

Fades

Josh Reynolds, George Kittle, Isiah Pacheco

 

QB Rankings

Brock Purdy

Lamar Jackson

Patrick Mahomes

 

RB Rankings

Christian McCaffrey

Jahmyr Gibbs

Clyde Edwards Helaire

 

WR Rankings

Deebo Samuel

Son God Amon Ra

Rashee Rice

 

TE Rankings

Sam LaPorta

Mark Andrews

Travis Kelce

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