Snyder’s PGA Bets: The Players Championship
17-12 +3.99 units
Tommy Fleetwood -120 vs Adam Scott *1 unit* -DK-
This match-up has 2 golfers that are going in opposite directions in that Fleetwood is rounding into form, while Scott has been trending downward. Fleetwood has been playing some solid golf overseas and is now coming off a top 10 finish at the Arnold Palmer last week. He gained 4.7 strokes approach last week and has a strong history here at Sawgrass (5th/7th) in his last 2 appearances. Scott does have good course history here but has been trending down with finishes of 54th and 38th in his last 2 events. He has lost strokes in approach in 3 of his last 4 events and lost over 5 strokes off the tee last week.
Emiliano Grillo -129 vs Zach Johnson *1 unit* -DK-
Grillo has been playing a lot more consistently as of late and has finished inside the top 25 in 3 of his last 4 events. Grillo’s off-the-tee game has been very strong gaining 2 strokes on average over his last 10 events. Grillo has made his last 3 cuts here with finishes of 26th, 37th, and 11th. Zach only has one top 50 finish here at The Players in his last 4 trips a 48th place finish and did miss the cut here in 2019. Last week Johnson lost over 6 strokes approach and ranks 129th in SG: T2G and 118th in OTT over the last 24 rounds.
Andrew Putnam +115 vs Matt Kuchar *1 unit* -DK-
I like the value we are getting here with the surging Putnam vs the struggling Kuchar who is only favored based on being the more popular golfer here I think. Kuchar has lost strokes off the tee in 4 of his last 5 events and ranks 133rd over his last 24 rounds. The approach play for Kuch isn’t much better losing strokes in 5 of his last 6 events and ranking 106th over his last 24 rounds. Putnam is coming off back-to-back top 5 finishes and looks to be peaking. He has had a hot putter over the last 6 weeks but did also gain 3.2 strokes approach last week.
Chris Kirk -114 vs Brendon Todd *2 units* -DK-
Todd generally needs to have a hot putter for him to contend as his approach and off the tee play have been suspect. Over the last 10 events Todd is losing 1.3 strokes approach and 1.7 strokes off the tee on average. In 2 appearances here Todd has finishes of MC and 51st so pretty bad. Kirk has been a strong golfer to target in 2021 as he 4 finishes inside the top 20 thru 5 events. The strong iron play has led the way and is backed up by a good putter. In the last 2 events, Kirk has even gained over a stroke off the tee and comes off an 8th place finish at the Arnold Palmer.
Top 20s
Webb Simpson +125
Tommy Fleetwood +250
Chris Kirk +400
Longshots:
Tony Finau 40-1 (FRL)
Scottie Scheffler 55-1 (FRL)
Sammy Burns 70-1 (FRL)
Collin Morikawa 20-1 to win
Justin Thomas 20-1 to win
Paul Casey 45-1 to win
Scottie Scheffler 50-1 to win
