Snyder’s PGA Bets: Genesis Invitational
11-8 +2.43 units
Matthew Fitzpatrick -106 vs Jordan Spieth *1 unit*
Fitzpatrick returns to the states after a couple of nice finishes over-seas. He finished 17th in Dubai and won the DP World Tour Championship in December. Fitzpatrick is a grinder that plays these tougher tracks well by just putting the ball in play. He was hitting his irons well to end 2020 and overseas had a nice GIR % of 76% in his 3 events. I think this is the event that Spieth comes back to reality now that we are on a tougher track where he won’t be able to make every 30 footers or hole out as easy. He has lost strokes putting in 4 of his last 5 trips here.
Corey Conners +106 vs Sergio Garcia *1 unit*
Conners enters the Genesis in real strong form finishing inside the top 20 in 4 of his last 5 events and is gaining an average of 6.5 strokes gained total over his last 7 events. Conners is a great ball striker and is gaining over 2 strokes approach on average over his last 5 events. Corey ranks 4th in this field in GIR and 1st in fairways gained and will put him in a position to make pars and birdies when able to. Sergio has made his last 3 cuts here but hasn’t finished better than 37th. Garcia played well overseas with a couple of top 15 finishes but his approach game and long irons worry me here and I am happy to take the dog here in this match-up.
Cameron Tringale -134 vs Cameron Smith *1 unit*
Tringale enters with some really strong form going 7th, 17th, and 18th in his 3 events leading up. Tringale has been doing it all from off the tee to hitting his irons well and is rolling the ball great with the flat stick. Tringale also has some solid course history here making 6 of his 7 cuts here. He ranks inside the top 30 in APP, T2G, and BS here and 10th in bogey avoidance. Smith doesn’t enter this event in good form missing his last cut and finished 62nd at the Sony. He has lost strokes approach in his last 3 events and has lost over 2 strokes putting in his previous 2 events. Smith has a missed cut and a 49th place finish in his last 2 trips here.
Sammy Burns -125 vs Charley Hoffman *1 unit*
Burnsy is long off the tee ranking 7th in this field, good ball striker 19th, Hits greens at a high rate 24th, and is a solid par 5 player ranking 16th. Sam has had the putter on point to start 2021 gaining strokes in each event and is off 3 straight made cuts. Burns crushed the par 5s here last year playing them at 7 under par en route to a 23rd place finish. Burns has been hitting his irons real solid heading into this event and I look for another positive performance from him here. Hoffman played great over the weekend at Pebble but had missed his last 3 cuts coming into Pebble and now travels to the tougher Riviera track where he has missed his last 2 cuts. Hoffman gained nearly 5 strokes putting last week and has not gained putting here in his last 6 trips. He also has struggled around the greens here and lost strokes approach in his last 2 trips.
Top 20s
Collin Morikawa +138
Matthew Fitzpatrick +300
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +600
Longshots:
Jon Rahm 20-1 (FRL)
Tony Finau 33-1 (FRL)
Wyndham Clark 100-1 (FRL)
Jon Rahm to win 12-1
Collin Morikawa to win 33-1
Viktor Hovland to win 35-1
Max Homa to win 70-1
