Snyder’s PGA Bets: The Farmers

YTD Record: 4-3 -.3 units —Last week 3-1

Gary Woodland -125 vs Ryan Moore   *2 units*

Gary Woodland sets up really well for this event as he can bomb it off the tee and avoids bogeys really well. Woodland ranks Top 5 in SG: BS, T2G, GIR gained, BoB gained and is ranked 7th in APP. Last week Gary said this was the first time that he has not felt pain in his hip which is big news. He gained nearly 8 strokes total last week en route to a 16th place finish. Woodland has made 9 of 10 cuts here and has finished inside the top 20 in 4 of his last 5 trips. Moore does not set up well for this event as he is short off the tee, cannot scramble well, and will make bogeys. Moore is 0-3 in cuts made at the Farmers and this sets up for our 2-unit top play of the week.

Sam Burns -112 vs Mackenzie Hughes     *1 unit*

Burns got off to a rough start last week posting an opening-round 77 but battled back to card a 66 in his 2nd round. This is a great bounce-back spot for Burns at a course that he has made the cut at the past 2 years. Burns has great length off the tee and is a solid ball striker. Over the last 5 events, Burns is gaining 4.6 SG: T2G and 2.7 strokes approach. Hughes has really struggled with his OTT and APP gain losing over a stroke in each category over his last 20 events. Hughes has missed the cut 2 of the last 3 trips here.

Bubba Watson -137 vs Rickie Fowler    *1 unit*

There are certain tracks I like to target Bubba at, and Torrey Pines is one of those as he has a strong history here with a win and a 6th place finish last year. He has torched this track T2G gaining 10 strokes on average over his last 4 trips here. Bubba ended 2020 strong with a couple of top 10s down the stretch hitting his irons real pure. The greens here are Poa for the most part and that is the only surface Bubba gains strokes putting on. Fowler has been in a downward spiral to end 2020 and has not recorded a top 10 finish in over a year. Fowler has missed the cut here in 4 of his last 5 trips and has not finished inside the top 60 in his last 7 trips here.

Charles Howell III -106 vs Rickie Fowler    *1 unit*

CH3 has the best long term course history here of anyone making his last 10 cuts here and finishing inside the top 20 in 8 of those 10 visits. Howell has been close to winning this a few times with 3 finishes inside the top 6 in his last 5 trips. He has been great off the tee and has been rolling the ball pure with the flat stick. I think this is a mismatch here vs the struggling Fowler who has poor course history and does not have his game together.

Top 20s

Viktor Hovland +163

Charles Howell III +300

Longshots:

Corey Conners 1st round leader (South) 40-1

Patrick Reed to win 25-1

Viktor Hovland to win 30-1

Bubba Watson to win 50-1