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Minnesota Vikings (-1) @ Carolina Panthers (46)
DVOA RANKINGS // DEFENSE // OFFENSE
Vikings VS PASS 6 // VS RUSH 20 // PASS 11 // RUSH 28 // OVERALL 13
Panthers VS PASS 2// VS RUSH 12 // PASS 27 // RUSH 20 // OVERALL 17
The Vikings have been in back-to-back low-scoring games and come off a last-second field goal win vs the Lions. Minnesota has only scored 2 touchdowns in their last 2 games and now faces a tough defense in the Panthers. Dalvin Cook is expected to return this week after missing last week’s game. If he happens to miss again, Alexander Mattison has been great filling in for him. Mattison has rushed for 100+ yards in both games and caught 13 passes. Justin Jefferson has been the key offensive player for the Vikings the past 4 games. 36 targets have led to 6+ catches in his past 4 games scoring 20+ DK points in his last 3 games. Adam Thielen’s catches have declined in the past 2 weeks but always makes for a solid GPP target with his increased RedZone usage.
Sam Darnold reverted back into the QB he was for the Jets last week. It was his worst completion %, yards per attempt, and he threw 3 INTs. There is cause for concern here as Darnold has now thrown 5 INTs in his last 2 games and this Vikings front 7 has been good at getting pressure on the QB with 17 sacks this season. Last week was the first time DJ Moore saw less than 11 targets this season. It also ended his streak of 3 games with 100+ yards receiving. Robby Anderson has been tilting to roster this season but his GPP upside is elite and I feel the big game is coming. McCaffrey missed his 2nd straight game last week and Matt Rhule said he is 50-50 to play Sunday at this time. Chuba Hubbard found success last week both on the ground rushing for 101 yards on 24 carries and through the air catching 5 passes for 33 yards. If CMC happens to miss this week Hubbard should fill in nicely as the Vikings have had troubles stopping the run this season.
Both teams have been good at pressuring the QB and rank inside the top 6 in pass defense DVOA. I look for this game to be on the slower side of things and could come down to a late turnover to decide things here. Carolina opened as 3 point home favorites but money has come in on the Vikings pushing them to a 1 point favorite. The total has also dropped 1.5 points down to 46 after opening at 47.5.
THE DFS GEMS
Justin Jefferson, MIN – $8,000 on DraftKings. Even with the Vikings struggling on offense the last 2 weeks Jefferson has still managed to score 20+ DK points in his last 3 games. Clear Alpha on this team.
DJ Moore, CAR – $7,300 on DraftKings. Moore looks to bounce back off his worst outing of the year. First 4 games this season Moore averaged 23.9 DK points.
Make sure to check back on Sunday to see where the experts are at — CORE PLAYS
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